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Ursula's Europe remains ambiguous between defense of the nationalist past and more integration to grow. Marcello Messori speaks

Interview with Marcello Messori, economist and president of Allianz Bank: "Few governments are willing to give up sovereignty, as Draghi hopes, to strengthen Europe's role. The ESM "is a tool that could be counted on in the event of a systemic crisis that is not seen today." "No country can maintain its economic freedom if it is unable to express a real foreign policy"

Ursula's Europe remains ambiguous between defense of the nationalist past and more integration to grow. Marcello Messori speaks

La Ursula von der Leyen's new Commission seems to reflect, more than the strength of the parliamentary groups recently elected in Strasbourg, the political weight of the parties in the various governments of the countries that sit in the Council, where the governments are expressed by the Popular Party or other right-wing parties, as in Italy. In essence, we are faced with a Commission in which the weight of the Popular Party has grown and, overall, despite the heavy delegations given to some "commissioners" (referring in particular to the Spanish vice-president), one can feel a lesser push than in the previous five years on the Green Deal, on technological innovation and on the management of immigration.

Professor Marcellus Messori As an economist, he has followed European policies for years and has learned to recognize the signals coming from Brussels to identify the possible consequence of the choices that will most likely be made. The feeling today with this composition of the Commission is that the push towards greater integration is destined to weaken in contrast to what was proposed in the Draghi report.

“I really fear that this will be the case. A contradictory aspect of many political forces in Brussels that lead individual states is already evident. On the one hand, there is a broad and formal adherence to the indications of the Draghi report – as our Prime Minister Meloni did – but on the other, few governments appear willing to proceed with those transfers of sovereignty that Draghi hopes for as the only way to recover Europe's role at an international level and safeguard our values ​​and our well-being. Instead, without the courage to innovate, we risk defending an outdated model and we condemn ourselves to follow the US and China on many matters of the new technological frontier. In other words, I have the impression that the European People's Party who are dominant in this new configuration of the Commission are adopting the old "two-oven policy" invented by our old Christian Democrats. That is, they will seek support from right-wing parties when it comes to launching policies to defend the current economic and industrial structures, thus risking freezing our economy on an old and increasingly less efficient structure, while they will seek the push of the left when it comes to addressing issues of civil rights or welfare".

The environmental policies launched by Europe appear to many to be unrealistic, expensive and at the same time ineffective. In Italy, Confindustria and the Government seem to agree in asking Brussels for a postponement of the rigid time objectives indicated and a review of many of the choices made.

"As an economist I can say that there is a so-called temporal inconsistency, that is, an economic law that shows that extending the adaptation times does not save money but, on the contrary, increases the costs for the system. I will not go into the merits of the individual aspects of the Green Deal, but it is certain that the way forward is not to extend the deadlines. If there are changes to be made, let's discuss them thoroughly and let's also do them on the basis of new technological possibilities".

But how could we avoid the risk of a further impoverishment of the EU's role in the world (a fall that has already occurred silently and that the Russian-Ukrainian war has now dramatically exposed). The Draghi report is very clear on this. Greater integration is needed, given that many problems can only be addressed at a continental level.

"I fully agree with Draghi - says Professor Messori - when he highlights the inextricable link between foreign policy, defense and economic policy. No country can maintain its economic freedom if it is unable to express a true foreign policy that enhances its role in the world and gives it an authoritative voice in the negotiating tables that I hope will open as soon as possible, even if we must avoid rewarding those who initiate armed aggression against another country."

The Fed was brave in cutting interest rates by 0,50 points. The ECB seems more cautious. What should we expect for the coming months?

“Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said a few weeks ago that most of the way to fight inflation had been traveled. Consequently, his decision appears to be in line with these statements. Furthermore, there was a geopolitical reason that pushed for anticipating the timing given that the next meeting of the Fed board will be in December, that is, after the elections and therefore the American central bank will not want to give the impression of being influenced by the popular vote. The ECB has reduced rates twice by the same amount as American rates. The difference is that the American economy is not in recession, indeed it continues to grow at a good pace, while the European one is stagnant or even in recession. Therefore, our ECB would still have room to reduce rates. I hope that they do not wait until December to make a decision, but that they move earlier”.

Finally, a question about the ESM that seems to have disappeared from the radar of political discussion but which instead remains a wound to the credibility of our country that the nomination of Fitto as vice president certainly cannot heal.

“The ESM is a tool that could be counted on in the event of a systemic crisis that is not seen today, but in such a fragile Europe with so many hotbeds of crisis on its doorstep, it cannot be ruled out at all. The new statute does not solve all the problems and does not satisfy all the wishes of individual governments, and yet it offers potential that could be exploited only if we also approved the treaty. Let me explain: the ESM has the role of intervening in the management of a financial crisis once it has manifested itself. But crises do not arise suddenly. One could think of extending the ESM's powers to include crisis prevention interventions, helping the Commission or the States to intervene on those bottlenecks that risk causing real crises. In fact, when the Covid pandemic hit, a health fund was activated to help individual countries intervene in that situation of great emergency. Once the ESM is approved, it will then be up to the various countries and the Commission to propose a better use of part of the large resources available to the Fund”.

Avoiding a nationalist involution in the EU will be the main objective of the coming years. Draghi has shown that to respond to the great challenges that the rest of the world poses to our continent, a strengthening of the community role is needed. Alone, we go nowhere. But national egoisms are short-sighted, they aim to satisfy (or promise to satisfy) the short-term interests of a frightened and distrustful population.

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