The climb of Unicredit to the German bank Commerzbank takes another step forward. This morning Unicredit has in fact received theECB authorization to acquire a direct stake in Commerzbank up to 29,9%, as expected for a few days. However, it will be necessary wait for 2026 to see if it will actually turn into aactual acquisition: the institute in Piazza Gae Aulenti to find out if it can actually convert into shares the 18,5% it holds in derivative instruments must wait for the green light also from the German antitrust, expected in a handful of months, in 3/4 months.
The ECB's approval "highlights the financial strength and regulatory compliance” of the Italian bank, but “there are still several factors which will determine any subsequent developments and their timing,” Unicredit says cautiously.
Il Unicredit title at Piazza Affari at mid-morning it returns to slightly positive territory at 51,06 euros (+0,039%) after a minimum shortly after the opening at 50,49 euros. In the last 5 days the stock has lost almost 5%.
The timetable moves to 2026. The ball is in Germany's court
The institute announces that the decision of a investment beyond the current one at Commerzbank ““it is not likely” in 2025 and that "the focus remains on the implementation of the strategic plan" underway. UniCredit "is waiting for the opportunity to start a constructive dialogue new government of the Federal Republic of Germany, once formed” and explains that “as shareholders, we are pleased to see that our investment has resulted in a Positive change at Commerzbank which, together with the recent more optimistic outlook for the German economy, has led to a substantial appreciation of the stock. However, only a significant period of time will be able to demonstrate the effective execution of the plan and establish whether such appreciation of the title is justified and sustainable”. Therefore, the institute's original timeframe for deciding whether or not to proceed with a potential aggregation “will likely extend well beyond the end of 2025″.
In December, the institute led by Andrea Orcel had announced that it had “the documentation was submitted regulatory requirement to acquire a stake in Commerzbank of more than 10% and up to 29,9%” and that the bank's overall position in Commerzbank amounted to approximately 28%, of which 9,5% through direct participation and approximately 18,5% through derivative instruments.
