Alongside the banking risk, a new one is also emerging risk in telecommunications: the goal is aaggregation between operators, especially to put an end to the price war and encourage investments in networks and services. On this basis illiad, after failed attempts to detect Vodafone Italy, who ultimately preferred Swisscom, returns to the charge and goes to knock on the door of the Italian Treasury Department putting on the table a dossier relating to Telecom Italy.
The French telecommunications operator, owned by billionaire Xavier Niel, as reported today Corriere della Sera e The print, is evaluating the possibility of a consolidation deal with the former Italian telephone monopolist Telecom Italia. La Stampa said that Iliad has given the Boston Consulting Group a mandate to study a possible deal, while the Courier said that Iliad, advised by Lazard, had recent discussions with the Italian Ministry of Economy, and holds just under 10% of the telephone operator. The basic idea is to succeed and bring the operators from four to three as happens in Germany, Portugal, Greece or Ireland.
Il Courier added that the British fund Hvc was examining the unit Business Services of Tim, with the idea of merge it with the ICT Maticmind group, which the private equity group controls and in which Cassa Depositi e Prestiti has a stake.
Il Telecom Italia title at Piazza Affari it has been moving upwards for days. This morning in particular it jumped 4,5% at the opening up to 0,30 euros, then fell back towards 0,29 euros, still maintaining a gain of over 3%. Technical analysts see signs of strengthening for the short-term trend with the most immediate resistance seen at 0,2974 euros and with a support level controlling the current phase estimated at 0,2896.
2025: The Year of Telecommunications Risk?
illiad is therefore back on the attack, after having failed, twice, to get its hands on Vodafone Italy. beginning of the year the Swiss operation had been completed Swisscom which they have detected note Vodafone Italy, giving way to the creation of a new telecommunications giant in Italy, Fastweb + Vodafone, defined as "the most important consolidation operation in recent years on the telecommunications market in Italy". But the risk starts again.
The union between Telecom Italia and Iliad could give birth to an entity with a mobile market share of 38% and for the fixed network of 40%, if it were able to overcome the obstacles of evaluation, antitrust and state control" comment the analysts of Bloomberg. Last year, Iliad, in an attempt to obtain Vodafone Italia, had put on the table an offer, later rejected, equal to 10 times EV/Ebitdaa (the ratio between the enterprise value and the “industrial” profit). This evaluation “could be a point of reference for the talks” says Bloomberg. Instead the risks in terms of antitrust now appear more manageable as the regulatory environment improves in Europe. “Consolidation options are favored by the Change of European Commissioner for Competition, even if they will have to pass the scrutiny of the government, which would hardly accept a break-up and which has an interest in preserving employment and the strategic relevance of the group", underline the analysts of Equita Sim. Any agreement, however, would have to obtain the support of the government.
Appointment on February 12th with Telecom accounts
For Tim, D-day is the next February 12th, when the details will be made known accounts and the industrial plan. While waiting for the double appointment, in the last few days Barclays updated its forecasts. On the one hand, it left its estimates for 2024 substantially unchanged, indicating a net debt of 7,4 billion euros (including the sale of the Inwit stake). On the other hand, Barclays analysts have revised upwards their forecasts for 2025 and 2026: they now expect revenues of +1,8% and +2,2% to 15 billion euros and 15,3 billion euros respectively. With an organic EBITDA expected to increase to 3,9 billion euros in 2025 (+2,8%) and to 4,3 billion in 2026 (+3,2%) in the wake of higher estimates for Tim Brasil thanks to the appreciation of the Brazilian real compared to the last update. Barclays has also increased the target price on Telecom Italia by 0,34 0,35 in euros and confirmed the Overweight rating with a 30% upside potential for common stock.
