The week starts with conciliatory messages by US President Donald Trump on duties, although after two months of rollercoasters, traders are reluctant to bet everything on a more subdued Trump. Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that the United States hopes to reach a deal on tfight between Russia and Ukraine by April 20, while Trump said that efforts to de-escalate the conflict were “fairly under control.” Morgan Stanley finally sees it filtering through Chinese consumption the government's numerous stimuli.
Their settled just below last week's all-time high of $3.021 an ounce, while the bitcoin it stood at $87.000.
The point on duties
In the confusion of trade policy on tariffs, at least some distinctions seemed to emerge over the weekend. The Trump administration is preparing for April 2, the “Liberation Day” the day the next round of US tariffs is due to kick in which now appears to be more targeted compared to initial global announcements, officials familiar with the matter told U.S. media. The scope of the tariffs is expected to be narrower than initially planned, with some countries exempt, while existing tariffs on steel and other metals may not be cumulative. Trump will announce broad-based reciprocal tariffs on nations or blocs, but is prepared to exclude some, and the administration is not planning separate, sector-specific tariffs for now. Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal They reported on Sunday that Trump will not impose tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors.
Trump said over the weekend that he plans to talk to the Chinese president Xi Jinping and that the U.S. trade chief will speak with his Chinese counterpart this week.
Republican U.S. Senator Steve Daines and executives of several foreign companies, including Apple e Pfizer They met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday and received reassurances about the country's entrepreneurial potential.
Despite all this, markets are currently stuck on Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs announcement on trading partner countries. According to the latest estimates, the tariffs are imminent and will take effect immediately, especially on the 15% of countries that have the highest tariffs and large trade volumes with the United States, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the "Dirty 15".
THEXNUMX-XNUMX business days he is in a conciliatory mood and has postponed to mid-April the adoption of the first countermeasures against the United States. This means that the 50% tariffs on bourbon, wine, toilet paper and other goods from the United States are being reviewed. France and Italy, The major wine exporters in the United States are intent on avoiding a trade war, as is Prime Minister Michael Martin of Ireland, a whisky exporter, who said he was satisfied with Europe's decision to "respond wisely and strategically".
Asian stocks little changed as Morgan Stanley sees stimulus impact on Chinese consumption
Financial markets began Monday with a little more optimism, with U.S. stock futures rising and the dollar steady ahead of a data-driven week and the threat of steep U.S. tariff hikes. US stocks on Friday closed higher, well below their lows, with the Dow and S&P both up slightly, while the Nasdaq gained half a percentage point. Yields on 38-year U.S. Treasuries fell 4,28 basis points from their mid-February highs to XNUMX%.
Le Japanese stocks are down slightly after the Bank of Japan signaled a possible rate hike, citing persistent food inflation and its impact on wages. The Nikkei 225 closed down 0,18% at 37.608,49. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said stubbornly high food costs could have a lasting impact on inflation and wage growth, suggesting the bank is willing to continue raising rates from the current 0,5%. Ueda also warned of uncertainty from potential U.S. tariffs under the new Trump administration, but said the BOJ could factor this into its quarterly outlook at its April 30-May 1 meeting, leaving room for a rate hike before the third-quarter consensus.
On the economic front, Japan's private sector contracted in March, with the Au Jibun Bank Flash Composite PMI falling to 48,5 from 52,0 in February. Services fell to 49,5 from 53,7 as rising costs hit spending, while manufacturing deteriorated further to 46,5 from 48,4, the steepest decline in a year. Input costs rose and business confidence hit a 50-month low, amid concerns over costs and trade.
The actions of the China and Hong Kong are largely flat this morning as investors turned cautious as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff deadline approaches and with no new market stimulus in sight. China's blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0,2% at mid-session, while Shanghai Composite Index lost 0,3%. The benchmark of Hong Kong Hang Seng fell by 0,1%. Chinese central bank reiterated its stance on cutting banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates at an “appropriate time” during a quarterly meeting of its monetary policy committee. Hong Kong stocks have risen about 18% this year, the biggest gain among all major markets, but a 4,4% drop in two sessions late last week signaled a pause in the flow of money as traders weigh their (and Trump’s) next moves.
Morgan Stanley raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China by 50 basis points to 4,5%, citing the impact of stimulus measures on local governments and consumption that has started to filter through “leading to some green shoots.” non-ferrous metal stocks rose 1,5% in China, while real estate stocks fell 1,1%. Sentiment for the technology majors Hong Kong remained negative, with shares slipping 0,2%. The focus was on the accounts of carmaker BYD and video platform Kuaishou as well as some Chinese banks and several real estate agencies.
In emerging markets, the fragile stock market of Indonesia suffered another sharp decline as the Turkish lira is in the balance as the jailing of President Tayyip Erdogan's main rival has unsettled investors.
European stocks positive ahead of PMI data
European stocks expected to open higher, Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0,5%.
Today's focus is on the data from the global purchasing managers' index (SMEs), which will likely confirm the sudden boost that fiscal policy has given to the German, French and other European economies.
Tim. Vivendi has started to reduce its stake in Telecom Italia, selling about 5% of its shares in the last week, dropping from 23,8% to 18,4% and collecting about 220 million. According to speculation by several newspapers over the weekend, Vivendi could see all or part of its remaining stake in Tim to Poste Italiane, the group's second largest shareholder, and to the private-equity fund CVC. According to Il Messenger Tim has given Credit Agricole, Intesa and UniCredit the mandate to manage the modification of its 4 billion euro credit line, expiring next year. The aim is to increase it to 3 billion and extend it to 2030, the article explains.
Iveco Group is considering the sale of its defense division – Iveco Defence Vehicles – to raise up to 1,5 billion, taking advantage of growing demand for military assets. The group controlled by Exor is in contact with potential buyers, including Leonardo, which could present an offer with Rheinmetall and private equity funds. Iveco had already announced in February the possibility of a sale or spin-off but some parties have reservations about the valuation.
Banca Mediolanum JPMorgan initiated coverage with Overweight and target price at 17,40 euros.
Banco BPM The European Central Bank will decide later this week whether the regulatory capital relief on banks' insurance holdings, known as the 'Danish compromise', can also apply when insurance subsidiaries buy an asset management company, a source familiar with the matter said.
Leonardo UBS cut its rating to Neutral.
Snam A peace between Ukraine and Russia could lead Europe to reactivate some limited gas flows in the face of falling prices,” CEO Stefano Venier said in an interview with Corriere della Sera on Sunday.
Stellantis He is proposing a new round of exit incentives for some workers at plants in Detroit, Ohio and Illinois.
Unicredit The acquisition of Banco BPM without its merger within the UniCredit group would reduce the cost synergies expected from the operation by 200 million, according to an integration to UniCredit's shareholders' meeting documents published at the request of Consob. The additional negative impact on UniCredit's Cet1 resulting from an acquisition of Anima by Banco Bpm without the benefits of the 'Danish Compromise' is quantified in 44 basis points in the event of 100% acceptance of the offer, in addition to the 78 basis points of the impact estimated in the scenario of full acceptance or in any case merger of the two institutions.
Juventus He fired coach Thiago Motta, entrusting the team to Igor Tudor.
Maire Tecnimont Barclays cut its recommendation to “underweight” from “equal-weight”.
