Le European stock exchanges have returned today to the mercy of the volatility and nervousness resulting from the war of the duties declared by Donald Trump, although Wall Street you are trying to bounce back after yesterday's decline. The biggest economies in the world have put the biggest burden on the markets today, United States and China, who have now laid down the foil and taken up the club to fight. The first ones bringing to the 104% customs duties on the dragon's goods, the second increasing the duties up to 84% on star-spangled products. The EU, more sober, will instead respond to the White House with 25% countermeasures, in three tranches, the first from April 15th, the second from May 16th, the third from December XNUMXst.
In this ever-changing context, where the US president also chooses a heavy and completely unusual rhetoric (“countries are kissing my a… to negotiate”), Milan loses 2,75% and retreats to 32.730 basis points. The Milanese blue chips, overwhelmed by the global tsunami, have moved en masse from yesterday's positive territory to today's negative one. A similarly strong wave of selling has hit Frankfurt -2,9% despite the government agreement, London -2,99% Paris -3,34% Amsterdam -3,26% Madrid -2,27%. The worst is Zurich, -4,56%, weighed down by pharmaceutical stocks after the tycoon's promise to hit this sector with duties too.
Wall Street in rough seas and T-Bonds on sale
Despite promises from the top of the US administration that all this turmoil will bring a lot of wealth to the US, the stock markets in New York remain at sea and are struggling to find a compass or any advantage in Washington's aggressive policies. Wall Street, after a negative start, went into green, then into red, then back into green (weak) in a clash between Bear and Bull where the first one has been winning for weeks.
Il Nasdaq (+0,9%) sees some coverage and in particular recovers Apple (+4,25%), after having lost around 25% in the last four sessions due to its dependence on China.
It is not only US stocks that are under pressure, but also bonds despite the growing expectation of a more accommodating Fed. The prices of T Bond are falling and yields are rising, with the 4,412-year rising to 4,5% (from XNUMX%) even though government bonds are generally considered a safe haven in times of turmoil like this and as recession fears grow. Today's auctions may offer an answer to how much confidence investors still have in U.S. debt.
Gold Boom, Oil Crash, Dollar In Reverse
Uncertainty is pushing investors towards thegold, which touched 3084,72 dollars an ounce and is currently trading at 3074,63 with an increase of 3,33%.
The script is the opposite for the Petroleum, overwhelmed by the trade war between the world's two largest economies. Brent and WTI futures are falling more than 5% to their lowest levels since 2021 and are showing prices below $60 a barrel. North Sea oil is trading at $59.41, while Texas crude is at $56,16.
The search for a safe shelter does not reward the dollar, which is back in deep red against safe haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc. Theeuro strengthens against the greenback with an exchange rate that once again surpasses the 1,1 mark.
Piazza Affari, the count of the injured starts from Saipem
The count of the injured on the main stock exchange of Piazza Affari starts today from Saipem -7,42%, in a sector of oil stocks in great difficulty. In fact, they also retreat Eni -5,52% and Tenaris -5,51%.
The pharmaceutical sector, which had been safe until now, is now also paying the price on the stock exchange.Tariffs announced in the sector. Recordati loses 5,53%. In industry they are collapsing under the blows of sales Stallantis, -5,46% and Interpump -4,38%, while Iveco it is the only big cap just above parity (+0,04%).
Male Campari -4,67% Generali -4,25%, A2a -4,76%, BRUNELLO CUCINELLI -4,17%. Banks are also negative, although Unicredit limits the damage to 0,18%. The day's toll is heavier than Understanding -2,2%.
Spread flare-up
Risk aversion hit Italian paper today, while the Bund attracted buying on the day that the CDU-CSU party led by Friedrich Merz announced that it had reached a coalition agreement with the SPD to form a new German government.
Lo spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of equal duration widens to 130 basis points. return of the Italian title rises slightly to 3,88%, while that of the German title falls to 2,59%.
Meanwhile, the wait for the ECB meeting next week, which is expected to see a further 25 basis point cut in interest rates, with the cost of money expected to fall to 2,25%. This forecast was also reinforced by the words of Francois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France and member of the ECB board, who in an interview with Le Monde defined the impact of the tariffs imposed by the United States as a key element that “justifies a new rate cut”. Villeroy estimated that the trade war will lead to a 0,25% drop in eurozone growth in 2025. However, the bloc will remain on a path of declining inflation, while the United States will probably have to deal with a possible “inflationary shock”.
