The breath of relaxation that swept the markets yesterday on the hope of a containment of the conflict in the Middle East was short-lived. We are at the fifth day of attacks mutual between Iran and Israel and what was scary in the night was theDonald Trump's exhortation to the Iranians to evacuate Tehran, after which he announced that he wanted to cut short his visit to the G7 summit and convened the US National Security Council.
The first to react was again the Petroleum, jumped nearly 2% in Asian hours, bringing gains to 7,5% since the conflict began on Friday. U.S. futures also fell, while currencies were relatively stable with the euro at $1,1560. Concern for markets and the world remains that the United States could become involved, which could amplify the conflict.
Amid the geopolitical turmoil, investors are bracing for a series of central bank meetings this week, starting with Bank of Japan, which today decided to keep interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.
Fear of Widening Conflict. Trump's Entire Staff in the Situation Room
Trump's warning was scary evacuate the Iranian capital immediately. The fear is obviously of US involvement in the war, while everyone is trying to tone things down. A White House aide said that it is not true that the United States is attacking Iran, reports Reuters. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in Fox News that Trump seeks a deal with Iran on nuclear-related activities, and said the United States will defend its assets in the region. Trump will return to Washington without attending the second day of the G7 summit, to “deal with very important matters” and asked the entire White House national security team to meet in Location Room.
World leaders gathered at G7 summit in Canada, called for a de-escalation of the worst conflict ever between the region's enemies, saying Iran must never possess a nuclear weapon while reaffirming Israel's right to defend itself. In a telephone meeting yesterday, European Foreign Ministers They called on their Iranian counterparts to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States and refrain from escalating the conflict with Israel. Iran's foreign minister responded that Tehran's priority for now was to confront Israel, according to a French diplomatic source.
Meanwhile waves of Russian drones and missiles They hit the neighborhoods of the Ukrainian capital Kiev at dawn this morning in what has been described as one of the largest attacks on the city since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022. The Russian strike hit 27 localities around the capital, killing 14 people and wounding 44, according to the Interior Ministry.
Asia, Boj leaves rates unchanged and reshapes bonds
Asian stock markets are showing a certain composure in the face of geopolitical events and are focusing their attention on the decisions of the Bank of Japan, which announced last night that it would leave its reference interest rates unchanged at 0,50%, in line with analysts' estimates, and confirmed a reduction in its bond purchase plan, to 200 billion yen (1,2 billion euros) per quarter, starting from the next fiscal year. At the end of the two-day meeting, the committee led by the governor Kazuo Ueda He argued in favor of maintaining the status quo, in the wake of a contraction in GDP in the second quarter and the ongoing stalemate in negotiations with the Trump administration in Washington to try to contain the impact of tariffs on global trade. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0,5%. The yen was at 144,4 against the dollar, level with yesterday.
The Japanese SoftBank Group Corp. raised about $4,8 billion from the sale of shares of the American T-Mobile US Inc. , a move that helps fund the company’s grand plans for artificial intelligence. The Tokyo-based technology group sold 21,5 million T-Mobile shares at $224 a share — the bottom of the $224-$228 range overnight and a 3% discount to T-Mobile US’s closing price of $230,99 a share on Monday. T-Mobile shares fell 3,9%
In China, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong is unchanged. CSI 300 of the price lists of Shanghai Shenzhen down 0,2%. Taiex of Taiwan +0,3%. Shares of companies in the semiconductors for artificial intelligence. Stocks of Chinese companies that deal with brain-computer interface technology have also been bought, after the country's first clinical trial of these applications showed early signs of success. Financial Times reports that the talks between China and the European Union are not doing well, the EU-China leaders' summit scheduled for 24-25 July in Beijing risks being cancelled.
At the Seoul Stock Exchange, the Kospi index is down 0,5%. The value of the South Korean stock market has regained the threshold of 2.000 billion dollars in recent days, something it hasn't done in three years.
I oil prices are rising on concerns about possible disruptions in crude supply. Brent futures are up 0,85% at $73,85 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 0,90% at $70,88 a barrel. Iran is a major oil producer and a member of OPEC. The price ofgold, the safe haven par excellence, however, is in reverse (futures -0,18% at 3.411 dollars an ounce).
Yesterday Wall Street closed higher. Pressure on bonds
Yesterday the US shares closed higher on hopes that a truce was in the making between Israel and Iran, with Iran calling on Trump to impose a ceasefire and Israel's prime minister saying his country was on the "road to victory."
Tehran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to pressure Trump to use his influence with Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, in exchange for Iran's flexibility in nuclear negotiations, sources told Reuters.
The US stock market took home a 0,75% gain on the Dow Jones; along the same lines, a day of gains for the S&P-500, which ended the day at 6.033 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose (+1,42%); along the same trend, the S&P 100 rose (+0,98%). Among the protagonists of the Dow Jones, Intel (+2,98%), Goldman Sachs (+2,33%), Nike (+2,26%) and Dow (+2,24%). The strongest sales, however, hit McDonald’s, which ended trading at -1,86%.
While stocks have shown some resilience, the government bonds have resumed their decline, pushing yields across the board two to six basis points in late afternoon trading in New York on concerns that rising oil prices could drive up inflation and widen the U.S. budget deficit. Traders are therefore demanding a higher premium on longer maturities. After the debt sale thirty years , which was closely followed last week, recorded a higher-than-expected demand, the auction twenty years. The yield of 4,942% reached the indicated level, and non-dealers were allocated 86,6%, slightly better than recent sales. two-year yields rose about two basis points to 3,97% as traders scaled back bets on Fed easing.
Investors await the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve US future, when policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to LSEG data, money markets do not expect the Fed to cut rates before September, estimating a 61,1% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points. The Fed is also scheduled to publish a quarterly update of economic and interest rate projections, known as a dot plot.
European stocks seen opening lower
European stocks expected to open lower on the basis of a -0,67% indication of the Eurostoxx50 futures.
Unicredit/Banco Bpm. The Italian government has responded to the European Commission's comments on the golden power clauses imposed on Piazza Gae Aulenti for the offer on Banco, stating that domestic savings are a matter of national security.
nexi. Mercury cut its stake to 3% from 9,4%
Lottomatica. Gamma Intermediate has concluded an accelerated bookbuilding (abb) to sell its entire 21,3% stake at 22,5 euros per share and thus exit the capital of the company active in the gaming and betting services sector.
Snam. Berenberg increased the target price from 4,90 to 5,30 euros and reiterated the hold rating.
