Le European stock exchanges inaugurate the week of August 15th with a cautious trend, without managing to fully take over the baton from Asia, where Tokyo and the other main stock markets benefited from the positive closing of Wall Street on Friday and from new expectations on US interest rates. The main thing that is holding back the Old Continent is the uncertainties over the Strait of Hormuz, which brings oil back above $83 a barrel. The macroeconomic calendar looks relatively light, but investors' attention is already focused on theUS inflation in July, due Wednesday. The data takes on even greater weight after Friday's US labor market report, which showed just 23 new jobs created in July. The weak employment rate has mitigated fears of immediate tightening by the Federal Reserve and contributed to Wall Street's record close.
However, the following remain open: doubts on the next moves of the central bankHigher-than-expected inflation could rekindle bets on a further rate hike, while markets have already downplayed the likelihood of intervention in September. On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman have reportedly entered the final phase of negotiations to define new maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran continues to make the full reopening of the passage conditional on US compliance with its conditions. Donald Trump has spoken of ongoing negotiations, while the absence of a definitive agreement keeps the risk premium on energy high.
Il Brent rose 0,44% to $83,92 a barrel, while wtf gains 0,29% to $78,41. Also rising is natural gas in Amsterdam, which is advancing by more than 2% towards 56,7 euros per megawatt hour.
Asia shines, Tokyo runs with chips and cars
Asian stock markets started the week on a decidedly more positive note. Nikkei closed up 2,08%, supported by both technology stocks and the weakness of the yen. Taiwan gained 1,59%, Seoul's Kospi 0,65%, while Sydney fell 0,33%. Hong Kong continued to gain, up 0,76%, Shanghai 0,44%, Singapore 1,05%, and Mumbai 0,11%. The boost came mainly from the recovery of artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related stocks, which returned to the forefront of buying activity after weeks of high volatility. In Tokyo, Disco Corporation, up 7,77%, Advantest, up 6,03%, and Tokyo Electron, up 4,07%, stood out. The yen's depreciation also benefited automotive exporters, with Suzuki up 3,81%, Nissan up 3,14%, and Subaru up 1,75%.
Attention also remains high on the Bank of JapanThe minutes of the July meeting reveal a more restrictive stance, with several board members favoring a faster pace of rate hikes to counter the risks of accelerating inflation. The central bank had already raised interest rates to 1% in June, and the market is now looking to the September meeting as a potential opportunity for further tightening.
Meanwhile, signs of price moderation are coming from China. Consumer and producer price inflation slowed in July, suggesting easing cost pressures but also continuing weak domestic demand.
Europe lacking momentum, Milan opens just below par
The European start is decidedly more cautiousFrankfurt gains just 0,16%, while London and Paris fluctuate around parity with variations of -0,05% respectively. At Piazza Affari, the FTSE MIB starts off little changed and remains in the 53.680 point area, with a decrease of 0,07%. Good stm thanks to the return for the AI
Financial risk remains one of the topics to follow. Unipol continues to be monitored after CEO Matteo Laterza indicated interest in holding more than 30% of a potential new banking group resulting from the merger between BPER and the assets that could be spun off from MPS. The Italian Sea Group also in the spotlight, which has launched the competitive process for the entry of new investors or the sale of assets as part of the restructuring process.
Dollar strong, gold rises, and spread hits 78 points
On the currency market the dollar strengthens against most major currencies. The exchange rate euro-dollar is moving around 1,156, while the greenback rises to 158,4 yen.
The weakness of the Japanese currency remains one of the central themes of the session, also in light of the more hawkish tone emerging from the Bank of Japan and the joint interventions in recent weeks between Tokyo and Washington to support the yen.
Gold strengthens again and is trading around $4.350 an ounce, up 0,20%. Futures expiring in December are holding above $4.400.
On the bond market it spread The spread between BTPs and Bunds stands at 78 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Italian bond rises to 3,92%, while that on the German Bund stands at 3,14%.
