The trend ofinflation in the United States disappoints the markets which, after the August consumer price data, began to lose ground. Perhaps because the price trend was not as significant as hoped, perhaps because it is not clear what the Fed will do (will it cut? will it cut only 0,25%?), the fact is that the stock market has lost ground and tomorrow there will be the acid test with US producer prices.
I price lists Europeans they close a volatile day in contrast, animated above all by the blitz of Unicredit, while the ECB will meet tomorrow and is estimated to ease its tightening slightly by another 0,25%.
Square Business falls by 0,12%, preserving the 33.174 basis points. At stock level, the news of the day, in Milan, as in Europe, concerns the banks: it is the Unicredit's surprise move (+0,22%) up Commerzbank (+18,94% in Frankfurt), which could be a prelude to further developments. The institute led by Andrea Orcel has risen to 9% in the capital of the German bank, astonishing the possible candidates for a new banking hub in the Belpaese, such as Bpm bank (-0,74%).
As for the other main indices in Europe: they are slightly down Paris -0,13% London -0,14%, while they are positive Frankfurt + 0,34% Madrid +0,64% and Amsterdam + 0,3%.
Wall Street moves in the red (DJ -1,3%) after a cautious start. The price lists are confronted with macro data, but also with politics after the Harris-Trump TV debate. The victory is awarded to the democratic candidate, which will also be able to count on Taylor Swift's vote.
Stocks that would have benefited from an opposite victory are falling, especially those related to cryptocurrencies, blockchain, while Trump Media & Technology Group, Tyconn's media company, falls by 16,3%.
US inflation in chiaroscuro
The formula is a bit stale, but it gives you the idea: the US inflation data in August are mixed and cast further doubt on the Fed's monetary policy meeting.
The logic of numbers and percentages says that the prices for consumption last month are grown up of 0,2% (as expected) and fell to +2,5% on an annual basis, at the lowest trend rate since February 2021 and below expectations of 2,6%. However, core inflation growth, calculated net of more volatile goods such as energy and food, rose more than expected: +0,3% monthly (against 0,2% in July). On a trend basis, the 'core' rate remained stable at 3,2%.
A situation that, in the heat of the moment, appears to be little suited to favoring a rate cut of 0,5% and instead further increases the probability of a prudent move by the Fed of 0,25%, at the end of its meeting on September 18.
Rising dollar
even the dollar appears nervous. The greenback is strengthening against GBP ed euro (which gives up about 0,15% and is trading closely at 1,1), but is losing ground against the yen (-0,77%) and changes to 141,33. The Bank of Japan, in fact, is expected to move in the opposite direction to the others, as reiterated today by BoJ advisor Junko Nakagawa, according to whom the Japanese institute will continue to raise rates if the economy and inflation allow it.
Among the raw materials, the prices of Petroleum, after yesterday's losses. Hurricane Francine, which is expected to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few hours, is helping to give a boost.
Piazza Affari, banks clash after Unicredit
On the main Milanese list, banks closed mixed. Unicredit's move surprised everyone, even the German government. In any case, the institution in Piazza Gae Aulenti specified that it will present to the competent authorities, "if and when necessary", all the authorization requests to be able to possibly exceed the 9,9% threshold in Commerzbank. According to FT, the Germans are open to negotiations on a possible integration with the Italian bank. For the broker Equita, this scenario could lead to "synergies equal to approximately 10% of Commerzbank's cost base, a premium in the 20-25% area and a 50% cash/50% paper operation". Followed by "an EPS growth above 15%, without compromising the bank's capital strength with Cet1 remaining in the 13,5%-14% area and preserving the dividend distribution policy".
On the Ftse Mib the banks in decline are Mediobanca -1,64% and Banco bpm, while those in greatest progress are Ps +0,82% and Bper + 0,61%.
Among financial stocks today it bounces Unipol +1,95%, group attentive to movements in the banking sector given its holdings in Bper e Popular of Sondrio (-0,08%).
Outside this banking perimeter, he finds his smile again Saipem +1,67%, after yesterday's tears. Good Italgas +1,46% and Campari + 1,14%.
He can't shake himself instead Amplifon -1,55%, fearful of potential competition from Apple. They retreat nexi -1,16% and Diasorin -1,01%.
Outside the main index, a good session closes for Industries From Nora (+4,99%) after signing a memorandum of understanding with Japanese technology company Asahi Kasei to develop and commercialize electrolyzers and containerized systems for small-scale green hydrogen production.
Saras is leaving today definitively Business Square, after 20 years of permanence, following the takeover bid of Vittol (via Varas).
Declining spreads and rates
The secondary closes in green, with lo spread between 139-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration at 3,46 basis points, while yields fall to 2,06% and XNUMX% respectively.
On the primary auction of annual Treasury bills, the yield returned below the 3% threshold for the first time since December 2022.
