Markets are more hesitant than pessimistic today, especially looking at developments in the war in the Middle East with Israel announcing that it will soon respond to Iran's missile attack. After yesterday's losses, European stock markets are closing in disarray and not far from parity: Milan -0,28% Frankfurt -0,18% Paris + 0,05% London + 0,16%.
Wall Street on the other hand, it is timidly positive at the end of the morning (DJ +0,15%, S&P 500 +0,15%, Nasdaq +0,27%) after a start in “relative red”, with investors wanting to keep their hands free for any geopolitical scenario. From the macro front, the Adp report on private sector employment in September showed numbers (+143.000) higher than expected (+125.000), reinforcing the idea of a solid US economy that can withstand prudent rate cuts, after the maxi cut of 50 points last month. In the Eurozone in August the unemployment rate stood at 6,4%, unchanged from July and down from 6,6% in August 2023.
Meanwhile, the Germany, for once, urged the ECB to be more courageous: according to German Finance Minister Robert Habeck, the central bank has so far been too cautious in cutting interest rates.
In Asia Hong Kong (+ 6,2%) and Tokyo (-2,22%) closed at opposite ends, between Chinese incentives and war theaters.
Oil slows down
Oil prices remain positive, but not too much, having been ignited yesterday by the Iranian missile attack on Israel, which should be matched by a countermove by Netanyahu. Brent appreciates by 0,75% to 74,11 dollars a barrel. Euro slightly retreating against the dollar at 1,104.
Piazza Affari down with Pirelli-Brembo
Business Square closed at 33.675 basis points, split between gains in oil stocks and of the defense (Leonardo +3,63%) and losses in the automotive sector. In particular, the pairing dominated the Milan stock exchange Pirelli (-2,43%), Brembo (+0,49%). The market choices were guided by Brembo's exit from Pirelli, announced yesterday evening. On the one hand, this has removed the speculative appeal of a possible merger from the stocks, but on the other hand, it has given a positive boost to the Bergamo-based company's stock. According to Equita, in fact, the sale of Brembo "eliminates an investment that had never been clearly explained", while thanks to the proceeds, the brake group can further increase "the firepower for investments well over a billion".
The automotive sector is down on the main index even with Iveco, -2,67%, while Ferrari salt of 0,27% and stellantis loses 0,16%. According to the unionists of Fim and Cisl, the Italian-French company could reduce production in the Bel Paese to below 500.000 vehicles in 2024 from 751.000 last year.
Banks are closing in a random order Bper rises by 1,45%, while Unicredit drops 1,54%. For Intermonte, Andrea Orcel's move on Commerzbank represents "a game of poker with a few high-level players around the table”. One of the most skilled poker players is the Italian manager, able to talk to all parties. In a context with still uncertain outcomes, Intermonte raises the target price on the stock to 43,6 euros (from 41,4), reflecting the new estimates on revenues and profits in light of a “resilient interest margin (Net income interest), which seems destined to remain high”. The recommendation remains 'Neutral'.
Oil stocks are doing well starting from Saipem +1,65% ed Eni +1,64%, utilities are weak instead.
Luxury remains in evidence with cucinelli +1,16%, while it is on the sidelines Moncler -0,4%, after LVMH and Ruffini Partecipazioni Holding agreed not to increase their overall stake in Moncler beyond 20% over the next three years.
Stable spreads
The secondary closes a quiet session: the spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of equal duration it remains at 133 basis points, with a rate of 3,43% for the Italian bond and 2,1% for the German bond.