Donald Trump has managed to do that too: make sure that the dollar and US assets are no longer considered a “safe haven”. US stocks, bonds and dollar have fallen in unison, fueling fears that foreign investors are withdrawing from US assets. What is most worrying is the sale of Treasuries long been the go-to for investors in times of panic. But now that the president has launched an all-out attack on global trade, their safe haven status of the world is being questioned. All Asian stock markets, from Japan to Australia, were showing a sea of red. Investors are still taking refuge in gold which rises above $3.200, but also in the yen, In 'euro and in Swiss franc.
On the contrary, stock futures in Europe indicate aupward opening. In an interview with Financial Times, Ursula von der Leyen said the EU could tax Big Tech if trade negotiations with Trump fail. For The Donald, “the EU was smart” to keep retaliatory tariffs against the United States suspended.
Does the “King Dollar” Still Exist? Trust Is No Longer a Given
Fears of a sharp downturn in the global economy have once again sent markets reeling, with action focused on currencies, stocks and bonds, pushing investors out of dollar-based assets. In other words, they are moving a bit as a risky asset. Or, as former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers puts it, like emerging market debt.
The yields of 30-year Treasury bonds rose 13 basis points to 4,87%, the biggest weekly jump since at least 1982, while the 4,444-year yield rose to 2001% and is on track for its biggest weekly gain since XNUMX, LSEG data show. That profound implications for the global financial system. As the world’s “risk-free” asset, Treasuries are used as a benchmark to determine the price of everything from stocks to sovereign bonds to mortgage rates, while also serving as collateral for trillions of dollars in loans every day.
Il dollar has collapsed of 2,3% against euro, which is now at its highest since February 2022 in the 1,133 area. The greenback also lost against the Swiss franc, the sharpest decline in the last ten years, the yen hit its highest level in six months. Thegold they resumed their run reaching another record over $3.200 an ounce. The Petroleum is headed for a second weekly loss. Brent crude settled above $63 a barrel, down about 3% this week after hitting a four-year low on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate settled near $60.
Even if this dynamic were to weaken with the normalization of the oscillations equity, as predicted by most analysts, a message has been delivered to policy makers in Washington: the confidence of investors in the government bonds US can no longer be taken for granted, not after years of mounting debt, and not with a president in the White House determined to rewrite the rules at home and abroad, alienating many of the country’s largest creditors in the process.
Wall Street drops sharply. Trump: “Everything is fine”
Fears of an all-out trade war between the United States and China and concerns about the damage that tariffs could cause to the global economy caused US stocks to sink yesterday: the S&P500 index closed down 3,5%, the Nasdaq down 4,3%: losing about a third of the previous session's gains. All sectors on the American S&P 500 index are sliding. Among the worst performers on the S&P 500 list, the energy (-6,40%), IT (-4,55%) and telecommunications (-4,14%) sectors are falling the most.
“We are doing well, there are transition costs but in the end everything will be fine“, he had tried, without success, to reassure in the evening Trump. For Treasury Secretary Scott Besent "there's nothing strange about it” on the markets, despite the roller coaster of these days. “Oil is up and inflation is down,” Bessent added at a government meeting.
Today on the agenda are the results of some US giants such as BlackRock, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo.
Asia, China invites Trump to meet halfway. Nikkei collapses
After an all-too-brief relief rally following US President Donald Trump's temporary withdrawal of some of his tariff threats, Asian stock markets from Japan to Australia were in a sea of red. Stock markets in China, the remaining target of Trump's ire, were, however, relatively steady. The Nikkei fell apart, while India's stocks rose.
The Tokyo stock exchange lost 3,9%, bringing the losses for the entire week to -16,5%. The stocks that fell the most are those of car companies also because Goldman Sachs has revised downwards its earnings estimates and target prices. Toyota -7,6%, the sharpest daily drop since September 30. Honda -6,7% Nissan -8,9% Subaru (-7,4%), Mazda (-6,9%).
Lo yen is approaching last summer's highs, at 143,3 to the dollar, from 146,7 yesterday. The Japanese currency is set to close the week with the dollar-yen cross down 2,5%. Japan's top trade representative said the yen could also be discussed in the upcoming negotiations with the United States, if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brings the topic to the negotiating table. "This is a negotiating issue, and therefore we cannot rule out the other side's proposals from the beginning," said Ryosei Akazawa, the Minister of Economic Revitalization who is leading the tariff negotiations. "Bessent recently mentioned non-tariff barriers and exchange rates. Of course, we will respond to discussions on these issues if they are raised by the other side."
Le China stocks are mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index +1,4%. Shanghai Composite +0,3%. Taiwan Taiex +2,4%. The yuan stabilizes against the dollar, at 7,31. China renewed yesterday its invitation to the United States to start a dialogue, with the aim of "to be halfway” in addressing growing trade tensions. The half-hearted overtures came from Chinese Commerce Ministry spokeswoman He Yongqian, who nevertheless reiterated that “We will never accept extreme pressure and bullying by the United States”. The message was sent on the day its 84% counter-tariffs on American goods came into force and its crackdown on Hollywood films. Beijing has not adjusted its duties upwards to match the additional +21% decided on Wednesday by President Donald Trump. The White House has specified that the total rate on imports of Made in China is now 145%, including the 20% decided on fentanyl. These are levels that are too high and are starting to take on a meaning that goes beyond the trade war. Reuters reports that US President Donald Trump would be happy to close a compromise trade deal with China soon, “I have great respect for the President Xi, we will eventually find an agreement,” he said. But there are fears that Beijing could increase tariffs beyond the current 84%.
The climate remains tense and the spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry Mao Ning has posted on X clips of an anti-US video of a speech by Mao Zedong from the Korean War era, signaling the hardening of Beijing's positions. The US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, on the other hand, has candidly said that he has no contact with China, nor has the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, because Trump wants to negotiate only with Xi Jinping.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its estimates downwards by 0,5% Chinese GDP for 2025 and 2026, at 4% and 3,5% respectively. And economists now see, with the Dragon in full deflation, the growing risks of stagflation: a weaker yuan, combined with tariffs, could push up the price of fuel and other imports, just as the economy is stalling, causing stagnation.
The bag of South Korea is down 0,9%. Ftse Straits Times of Singapore -2%. BSE Sensex Index of Mumbai, + 1,8%.
European stocks seen on the rise. At Piazza Affari eyes on Leonardo and Webuild
While the US world collapses, European stock markets are expected to rise at the start of the session based on the +0,90% of the futures on the Eurostoxx50. The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, tells the FT that she is ready to negotiate, but at the same time does not rule out possible retaliation on Big Tech, such as Meta and Google
Rating. With the markets closed tonight, S&P will decide on the sovereign ratings of Italy and Great Britain, Moody's on the ratings of Belgium and France and Fitch on that of Spain.
Ps. The new private shareholders will be called to a meeting on Thursday 17 April to vote on the takeover bid for Mediobanca.
Banca Popolare di Sondrio. Scope Ratings affirmed the BBB rating and upgraded the outlook to positive.
Illimity. Fitch has changed its outlook to rating watch positive. At the same time, it has affirmed the current long-term rating of BB-.
Prada has reached an agreement to purchase Versace from Capri Holdings for a cash consideration based on an enterprise value of $1,375 billion.
Stellantis estimated consolidated shipments of 1,2 million units in the first quarter of 2025, down 9% from the same period of the previous year. The decline, the group explained, is attributable to lower production in North America, reflecting the extended holiday period in January, and in Europe to the impact of the transition to new models and lower volumes of light commercial vehicles.
Leonardo. the Public Finance document that the MEF sent to Parliament assumes that based on NATO criteria for calculating military spending, Italy is already at 2,0% of defense spending on GDP. NATO should increase the target to 3-3,5% in July.
Snam. Citi cuts rating to Sell. A change is looming at the top of Snam after an agreement was reached yesterday between the majority parties on appointments. According to newspapers, the current CEO Stefano Venier will not be reappointed, and his place should be taken by Agostino Scornajenchi, current CEO of Cdp Venture Capital.
Webuild. The Italian government has approved the IROPI (Overriding Reasons of Public Interest) report on the Messina bridge. This step brings the project closer to being approved by CIPESSE
