We're back on track after Wal Street closed yesterday for a holiday. The focus in the US will be on the next data (work e manufacturing) expected this week that will give the Fed an indication on rates. But also keep an eye on Tesla after a report by Reuters. The election results in Germany is causing some tension in the bond market, but it is far less significant than what was seen after the vote in France. asian bags they are weak: the strength of the is worrying yen and the struggle of the Chinese economy.
Wall Street reopens: eyes on Tesla, but also on employment
Trading will resume today on Wall Street after closing yesterday for the Labor Day holiday, with futures anticipating a decline based on the Dow Jones future -19% and the S&P500 future -0,17%.
Investors' attention will be focused on relationship on employment in the United States due later this week, and the ISM manufacturing survey, especially important after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he wanted to shift his focus from inflation to preventing job losses. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month is now 33%, down from 36% last week, with a quarter-point reduction given at 100%.
There will be more to follow Tesla after Reuters reported that the U.S. automaker plans to produce a six-seat variant of its Model Y in China starting in late 2025, Tesla has asked suppliers to prepare for a double-digit increase in Model Y production at its Shanghai plant.
Asia: Fears of too strong yen and too weak China
Asia Pacific stocks are weak or around parity this morning, in line with Wall Street futures: today the financial market of United States reopens after Labor Day holiday.
The index Tokyo Nikkei is down 0,03% at 38,686 as the yen starts to appreciate again after four sessions of decline. The cross is up to 146,09, from 146,9 yesterday. T. Rowe Price's head of fixed income, Arif Husain, wrote in a report yesterday that yen must be followed with great attention because in his opinion it is “the San Andreas fault of finance”. What we saw during the summer was only the first movement, others will come, volatility is destined to increase in his opinion. Husain writes that there is a mountain of Japanese money invested abroad ready to return home due to the increase in rates.
La Shanghai Stock Exchange continues to lose ground amid persistent fears over the resilience of the Chinese economy, which, according to Citigroup economists, could jeopardize its 5% growth target in 2024. The Composite index reduced the initial decline that had brought it below 2.800 points for the first time since February: in the course of the session it fell 0,28% to 2,803 points. The Hang Seng Hong Kong is down 0,4% at 17.616 points. Worth noting is the Sanergy Group, active in the production of graphite electrodes, which is collapsed by 97,5% after Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission warned investors trading in the stock due to its high share concentration. KOSPI of Alone down 0,3%. Inflation in South Korea slowed more than expected last month, a trend that will allow the central bank to proceed with a monetary policy reversal as early as next month.
Among other variables: bonds in tension after the vote in Germany
The day after the shock vote in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia, some tension was seen on the bond market. Certainly not like that recorded after the European elections and the reconvocation of the French people to the polls by Emmanuel Macron. In the German case, there is hardly any immediate risk of a change of government, but rather perhaps some consequences on fiscal policy and the dynamics of local public debt, according to analysts. Thus yesterday the Waist German 2,34-year bond rose to XNUMX%, but French and German bonds also moved accordingly: the OaT rose to 3,05% and the btp at 3,78% (yesterday the benchmark title changed), with spread up to 71 and 144 points respectively. Euro down slightly to 1,105. Petroleum on the rise: WTI at $74, +0,5%. Brent at $77. Gold at 2.496 dollars, -0,2%. Bitcoin at $ 58.900.
European stock exchanges: what to follow today
European stock markets should open slightly higher based on the indications offered by the future on the EuroStoxx50 index at +0,04%). The Ftse Mib in Milan closed yesterday slightly lower, -0,15%.
Volkswagen must reduce costs and for the first time in its 87-year history, to achieve this goal it is considering closing some plants in Germany, also interrupting the agreement in place with the unions that provides for no job cuts until 2029.
Defense sector still in the spotlight on the possibility that Germany will reduce its defense budget and aid to Ukraine. Yesterday there were many drops in the sector with Leonardo falling by 7,2% to 21,3 euros. Also in sharp decline were the German Rheinmetall (-2,7%) and Hensoldt (-6,3%). Same fate in Paris for Thales (-2,3%) and Airbus (-1,3%) and in London for Rolls-Royce (-5,5%) and Bae Systems (-2,9%).
The new season of bond issues, characterized mainly by medium maturities, saw yesterday Bpm bank to place with institutional investors a 6-year senior non-preferred social bond, with the possibility of early repayment in September 2029, for 750 million euros. Meanwhile Snam e Desio Bank are testing the market. Last week it was the turn of Mediobanca, Bper, Cdp Reti and EssilorLuxottica
EniThe Libyan oil field of El Feel, which Claudio Descalzi's giant manages in a joint venture with the National Oil Corporation, is undergoing major maintenance that will take time, while in the case of Tenaris Jefferies has cut the target price from 16 to 14,50 euros.
Italgas. According to rumors, the company's board of directors could meet between the end of this week and the beginning of next week to approve the binding offer for competitor 2i Rete gas. The proposal should be around 5,2 billion euros, including debt.
stellantis. In August it recorded a 32,24% drop in registrations in Italy with a market share of 24,82% from 28,04% in July, underperforming the market (-13,37%).
PharmaNutra announced that starting from September 18, SiderAl Forte 30 mg and SiderAl 14mg, made on the basis of the in-house patented sucrosomial technology, will be marketed in Germany by the global pharmaceutical giant Fresenius Kabi
CNH. Industrial Bernstein cuts target price to $11. Tenaris. Jefferies cuts target price.
