Wanting to try to make a balance of the year just concluded and one forecast reasonable about the next 12 months, the title of a beautiful book by the great journalist Mario Pirani who passed away about ten years ago comes to mind: "It could have been worse". In fact, after a couple of years of great growth, the economy slowed down not only in Italy but in almost all European countries, with Germany in particular suffering. The international situation, already greatly disturbed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has become further entangled both due to China's aggressiveness towards Formosa and the explosion of the conflict in Gaza triggered by a frightening terrorist action by Hamas in the territory Israeli.
Meloni government: many, too many broken promises
In Italy, a government dominated by the right was formed for the first time with a very small and barely influential centre, also due to the death of its leader Silvio Berlusconi. It can be said, without fear of contradiction, that the Meloni government for now he has not done what is necessary to revitalize the entire nation, as well had promised in his first speech to the Chambers. Some things have been done such as the profound reform of citizenship income and the closure of the 110% bonus, two sources of fraud and waste that only the ignorance of Giuseppe Conte and the 5 Star Movement could conceive. For the rest it was done little or nothing. Support for industrial investments has been reduced, nothing decisive regarding schools and training. Not to mention Justice where sterile controversies between ministers and magistrates are reported, without however managing to address the heart of the problem which lies in the scandalous inefficiency of our judicial machinery.
In foreign policy better than expected
The main success of the Meloni government lies in foreign policy where the prime minister, contrary to what she had always maintained when she was in opposition, adopted a course of action pro-Atlantic both on support for Kiev and on the Israeli question. On Europe, which the Brothers of Italy had also criticized to the point of claiming in a certain period that it would be convenient for us to leave the euro, Meloni had a fluctuating attitude. She left aside the most destructive controversies, but launched a "package" strategy (you give one thing to me and I give a different thing to you) which doesn't work in Europe and in the end she had to accept a renewal of the stability pact which is certainly not what our government was hoping for. Moreover, this idea of asking Brussels to be able to spend more by increasing our debt which is already 140% of GDP does not make economic sense.
On internal politics Meloni navigates by sight
improve our economic situation we have to do many changes in the way our system functions, both public and private. We have to do some reforms putting "merit" at the center which is considered a dirty word by us, but in its absence there is only the arbitrariness of the powerful in question. In short, we must reduce current spending, removing all the bonuses and benefits that have been given in recent years, carrying out a tax reform that can restore some fairness in the system, and above all by stimulating Research e training. The latter is indispensable if it is true that companies need at least 6-7 hundred thousand workers that they cannot find, and this concerns both the high levels of preparation and the more modest ones for which many more immigrants will be needed.
In short, our economic machine is struggling to move forward. Growth seems to have returned to zero point levels as in the previous twenty years. From this point of view, the Meloni Governments must set themselves the objective of getting out of this situation stagnation over twenty years old. Otherwise his government experience will end with a resounding failure.
The first obstacle for the Meloni government is Salvini's weight
Above all, Meloni will have to free herself from the burden as soon as possible Salvini who has decided to occupy an ultra-right space, exposing the country to enormous risks. The mess on the failure to approve the ESM by our Parliament claimed as a great victory by the Northern League, in reality deprives Europe and therefore us too, of a safety net that could be useful in the case of widespread financial crises, while from a political point of view it isolates us from the rest of Europe also because the considerations of the Northern League champions of the vote against, such as Borghi and Bagnai, are instrumental and clearly unfounded.
But beyond economic issues, 2024 risks being characterized by the risk of further political upheavals. In economics it can be said that inflation is starting to be brought under control, and therefore interest rates will have to fall, albeit gradually. If the price of raw materials remains at low levels, then there may be a favorable moment for the recovery of investments, public, but above all private.
The uncertainty over the American elections also keeps Europe in suspense
What worries us most is the political situation. There will be elections in many parts of the world. Self Putin seems certain to win in Russia also because it has imprisoned all possible competitors, maximum uncertainty reigns over the American elections. The trouble is that Europe seems blissfully unaware of the risks it might run if Trump returned to the White House. What would happen to NATO which, thanks to American weapons, allowed Europe to live in security without thinking too much about organizing its own defense? Russia and China have triggered a major revolt in the world against the supposed hegemony of the West. A revolt that started not because of the excessive strength of our weapons, but from our own political weakness, from the inability to mobilize our people in defense of democracy and what we have achieved. If Trump returned to traditional isolationism, the risks for the US of being involved in a conflict would not decrease, as he says in his rallies, but would increase, as history teaches. L'Europe reacts slowly. It took a year to launch the new stability pact, while other urgent needs are at hand for a common foreign and defense policy and for a ministry of the economy capable of developing a common economic policy to accompany the single currency.
Vast program! Either we will be far-sighted to do it in time, or we risk having to then act on the spur of emergencies with expenses and risks much larger.
