Elections in Poland with big surprises. Polish parliamentary elections are under scrutiny, with exit polls indicating a victory of the nationalist governing party “Law and Justice” (Pis), led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski with 36,8% of the votes, overtaking the centrist and pro-European electoral alliance'Civic Coalition' (KO), led by the former President of the European Council Donald Tusk, which obtained 31,6% of the votes. Nothing strange so far but here's the surprise: the Polish right doesn't have the numbers to govern while the opposition does.
At the moment, only 8% of the votes have been counted, and the Polish National Election Commission (NEC) plans to announce the final result by tomorrow.
The pro-EU opposition has the majority
Il Pee, of the current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, would be below the 40% threshold necessary to obtain a majority prize (with only 200 seats assigned). The only other potential ally, the far-right “Confederation” party, is estimated at 6,2% (12 seats).
And so thepro-EU opposition, led by the former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, ends up with a majority of seats (248) in the Lower House, the Sejm thanks to alliances with two minor parties who have declared themselves willing to govern with him.
Although the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, must entrust the exploratory task to the party that won the elections, Kaczynski's PiS would not have the ability to form a stable majority.
Tusk rejoices: "no more populism"
“This dark period is over, the Populist reign of Law and Justice is over“, Tursk exulted in the evening in front of his supporters. “Poland has won, democracy has won.”
“The majority of Poles voted for change. They want a strong, stable and future-oriented Poland at the heart of the EU. The Poles have chosen the rule of law, free courts and media, an apolitical army and democracy. They have chosen Europe,” writes the European People's Party (EPP) group in X.
The pro-European front got it results better than any forecast. Donald Tusk and his party, the Platform, reached almost 32%, while their allies Left (left) have exceeded the 8% needed to enter Parliament. The real surprise was Third Way, a centrist party that had initially refused to team up with Tusk, but said it was ready for post-election collaboration. Their 13% was an unexpected result.
Big disappointment, however, despite the party's victory, for Jaros Kaczynski who admitted that he doesn't know "what will happen" for the formation of the government. “We have days of struggle and tension ahead of us,” he said, speaking to supporters of his Law and Justice party, but - he adds - “whether we are in power or in opposition, we will continue to carry out our project and not we will allow Poland to be betrayed."
Voter turnout impacted Tusk's victory
Donald Tusk's probable victory was driven by voter turnout, which is almost certainly a record since Poland voted in democracy. Data estimated by the Polish source Onet suggest that theturnout in elections could be between 70% and 75%, thus setting a new record for all elections in Poland. The Polish National Election Commission confirmed that the turnout appears to be the highest since 1989. According to the Ipsos exit poll, turnout reached a record 72,9%. Furthermore, the most active group of voters was those between 50 and 59 years old, with a participation of 83,2%.
During the election campaign, Tusk had promised to “bring Poland back to Europe” and to counteract the illiberal course of the country, underlining the openness to dialogue with a united Europe and the world, tolerance, respect for human rights, sensitivity towards environmental issues and respect for the rule of law.
It will take a few days to have a clearer vision of the situation. The counting of votes abroad will be significant, as it has historically been favorable to moderates and has seen a significant increase compared to 2019. In any case the Poland will no longer have a Eurosceptic leader. A good signal for Europe after years of tensions with the Warsaw government.
