Companies be careful for the first quarter 2024, but there is no talk of recession. This is what emerges from the Turin and Piedmont economic survey which was held today Monday 18 December at theTurin Industrial Union. The projections for the first quarter of 2024, based on a survey conducted on approximately 1.000 manufacturing and service companies, highlight a declining climate of trust in the manufacturing sector, but more favorable in services. While manufacturing expects a worsening of production, orders, exports and profitability, services maintain positive indicators.
Simply put, the outlook for Q2024 XNUMX reflects an atmosphere of caution, with no signs of imminent recession. The ongoing economic transition requires attention, but the solid fundamentals of the Piedmontese industry could mitigate the negative impacts.
Employment and investments
The rate of plant utilization remains high for both manufacturing and services, but a slight slowdown in investments is observed. As regards theoccupation, there is minimal change at the aggregate level, but with differences between manufacturing (worsening) and services (improving).
Sectoral variations
At a sectoral level, inindustry almost all sectors are not very optimistic. The climate of expectations is particularly unfavorable in the textile-clothing, paper-graphics, construction and various manufacturing sectors (jewelry, toys, etc.). The metalworking industry (especially machinery) and the food industry are also slowing down (for which, however, the first quarter is typically characterized by negative seasonality). Automotive, plant engineering, chemistry, rubber-plastic, wood are growing. In the tertiary, sectors such as ICT, logistics and personal services stand out for positive expectations. An exception, as in previous months, is the trade and tourism sector.
The dimensional gap is widening again. Companies with over 50 employees have positive expectations; among the smaller ones, however, negative forecasts prevail.
Focus on Turin
Le Turin companies they keep more favorable forecasts compared to the regional average. At a regional level, there is a marked decline in confidence in industry, largely offset by the improvement in the services sector.
At the aggregate level, the balance on production per Torino remains remarkably positive, in stark contrast to the Piemonte overall, where both indicators, production and orders, are negative. In the manufacturing industry, both indicators fall below zero after eleven quarters.
In the manufacturing sector, there is a slight increase in the use of redundancy payments, although it remains at low levels. The resource utilization rate varies little, remaining close to the maximum. The propensity to investments it is essentially stable, with less than 25% of companies planning significant investments. About a third of companies have orders guaranteed for more than 6 months. Unlike the regional trend, profitability improves, especially in services, attributable to the greater weight of sectors with more positive expectations, such as automotive.
Food focus
Il Piedmontese food sector it is mainly made up of micro-enterprises (84% with a maximum of 9 employees). In 2022, exports reached 8 billion euros, an increase of 13,3%. Forecasts for the first quarter of 2024 indicate a less marked decrease than in the manufacturing sector. 15,7% of food companies expect an increase in production, 20% expect a decrease. Orders remain stable, and exports show a positive balance of +1,6%. The use of layoffs is low (2,9%), the rate of use of resources is high (73%), and 36% of companies have significant investment programs. For the order book, 25,0% have visibility for one month, 39,7% for 1-3 months, 22,1% for 3-6 months, and 13,2% for over 6 months.
Comments
The president of the Turin Industrial Union, Giorgio Marsiaj, emphasized the need to maintain perspective on the industry's strong fundamentals, while Marco Gay, president of Confindustria Piemonte, urges an incisive industrial policy to face the current challenges.
