After three consecutive quarters of contraction, the Expectations of Piedmontese companies are returning to positive territory. This is what emerges from thelatest economic survey conducted in March by the Study Center of theTurin Industrial Union, which involved approximately 1.300 manufacturing and service companies of the regional Confindustria system. An important signal, which comes despite the unknowns of a global economic scenario still unstable, aggravated by the introduction – later postponed by 90 days – of US tariffs.
Production, employment and orders recover
Companies express Confidence for the second quarter of 2025: expectations for employment (+7,0%), production (+4,4%) and orders (+2,9%) are improving. However, they remain negative export balances (-3,6%) and profitability (-5,2%), affected by the prospect of new duties. Despite these shadows, investments are not slowing down: over 70% of companies plan to spend on fixed capital, with a quarter aiming to purchase new plants, an increase compared to the previous quarter.
The index of use of the facilities remains stable at 77%, while the use of redundancy payments decreases slightly, activated by 10,5% of companies, with a higher incidence in manufacturing (14,1%).
Cautious manufacturing, tertiary sector in momentum
The sectoral picture is far from homogeneous. In the manufacturing prudence prevails (production balance at +1,7%), while the tertiary continues to benefit from the post-pandemic expansion dynamic, with a positive balance of +10,4%. The lower exposure to exports makes the services sector less vulnerable to international tensions.
In detail, in manufacturing Forecasts improve for some sectors: paper-graphic (+24,1%), construction and plant engineering (+15,3%), chemicals (+10,4%) and textiles-clothing (+5,9%). On the contrary, the crisis in the metalworking sector (-6,1%) continues, with a negative peak in the automotive sector (-24,6%) and unfavorable signals also in mechatronics (-2,7%).
All the tertiary sectors express optimism, in particular ICT, which records a balance of +23%.
Large companies more confident, exports continue to weigh
It is confirmed structural gap between large and small companies. Companies with less than 50 employees show a confidence balance on production of +3,2%, against +7,2% for those with more than 50 employees. The main factor is the export share of turnover: companies that are more oriented towards foreign markets have more cautious expectations. Those that export less than 10% record a balance of +7,3%, which progressively decreases to -0,5% among those that export more than 60%.
They worry, at a general level, the possible increases in energy, raw materials and logistics. The dynamics of payment times remains stable, while the number of companies with medium-long term orders is growing.
Territorial detail: lights and shadows between the provinces
A territorial level, production expectations are mixed. The situation is positive in Verbania (+15,7%), Asti (+11,4%), Biella (+7,5%, after seven negative quarters), Cuneo (+6,7%) and Turin (+4,5%). Optimism is more moderate in Alessandria (+3,5%) and Novara (+2,5%). On the other hand, Vercelli (-4,8%) and Canavese (-7,1%) are bad.
Turin, signs of stability despite the automotive sector
In Piedmontese capital, 22,2% of companies expect a increased production in the second quarter, against 17,6% that expect a reduction. The balance, equal to +4,5%, improves significantly compared to the 0,3% of the previous quarter.
Il Turin manufacturing however, it remains in difficulty (-1,8%), penalised by the automotive crisis. Orders are improving (+1,6%) and employment expectations (+4,3%). The propensity to invest is good, with 23% of companies planning to purchase new plants. Redundancy payments concern 11,1% of companies (16,9% in industry), while plant use drops slightly to 76%. As at the regional level, exports record a negative balance (-4,7%).
"The economic data for the second quarter of 2025 are a positive surprise, signaling a better than expected performance for the Piedmontese economy. A result that is far from a foregone conclusion, especially after months of announcements on duties that expose our exports to considerable risks. The trend we are recording from the responses that make up this survey confirms, instead, the resilience of our production system, capable of rapidly adapting to highly complex scenarios thanks to the strength of the supply chains, the quality of 'Made in' and the ability to cover strategic markets at a global level. This is an important signal, which must be seized upon to continue investing, innovating and strengthening competitiveness to transform this recovery into structural growth" commented Andrea Amalberto, President of Confindustria Piedmont.
