The markets are watching the developments of the Korean crisis in a surreal atmosphere, which do not bode well. North Korea moves its long-range missiles to the coast for a new ballistics test. A decisive intervention by Beijing on Kim is delayed, while Seoul mobilizes. Meanwhile, the tone of Donald Trump's threats is rising. But this news, dramatic as it is, hasn't moved the markets that much, frozen in expectation that in a few hours, after the Labor Day holiday, he will resume activity on Wall Street.
There is no panic in Asia either. The positive performance of Chinese markets, already awaiting the Party Congress, suggests that the markets do not believe that the situation can get out of hand. It should not be forgotten, however, that the game is played "by an angry 71-year-old American president, lacking any experience and a 33-year-old dictator, surrounded only by flatterers".
ONLY THE CHINESE EXCHANGES RISE, STOP THE BITCOIN
New record of the night for gold, which came to touch 1.340 against the dollar, and then settled around 1.336. New gains for the yen (+0,4% to 109,32 against the dollar). The euro was stable, traded at 1,1896, below last week's highs (1,2070): operators await the ECB meeting before taking on more demanding positions. The yuan is close to its all-time high: the Chinese currency has gained 2% in the last two weeks.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange (-0,5%) and futures on the American opening were weak. The Kospi index moved little in Seoul (-0,1%). The Chinese markets are much more tonic: Shanghai (+0,4%) reached the highs reached in January 2016, in line with a new increase in copper and other industrial raw materials.
Worth noting is the plunge of bitcoin from the maximum of 4.979,9 dollars recorded last Saturday to 4.131 this morning, after China yesterday declared the practice of raising funds through the issuance of cryptocurrencies illegal.
THE OIL INDUSTRY STARTS AGAIN. TENARIS RAISES HIS HEAD
Oil prices are recovering: Wti at 47,38, Brent at 52,70. The activity of the US refineries and fields resumes, even the fever for petrol slows down.
In Europe, the Oil sector turned higher in the final stages. In Piazza Affari, shares in the Oil sector closed up: Eni marks an increase of 0,1%, Saipem +0,1%. Strong rebound for Tenaris: +1,6% from the lows since May 2016 reached in recent days. The group's Texas plants did not report substantial damage as a result of the passage of Hurricane Harvey, according to a company statement. Construction of the new Bay City factory is also resuming and, as previously announced, "production of the first pipeline is postponed to October".
Saras was one of the better performers, gaining 2% to €2,10, its highest price since early August. The benchmark refining margin of the Mediterranean area (MED area) jumped to $6,80 a barrel last week.
WEDDING IN THE SKY BETWEEN AIR FRANCE, DELTA AND CHINA EASTER
Despite the Wall Street lull, there was no shortage of big business, at least in the skies. United Technologies has acquired control of Rockwell Collins for $30 billion, creating the first supplier of components to the aviation industry. Meanwhile, the Air France-KLM shareholders' meeting approved the entry into the capital of Delta Airlines and China Eastern with two 10% shares.
EUROPE, TRUST IS GROWING WAITING FOR DRAGONS
Weak European stock exchanges. Beyond the Korean crisis, the wait for the directorate of the ECB weighs on the stock markets (orphans of Wall Street). Futures on the opening rose slightly this morning. Services PMI data for the Eurozone (including Italy) will be announced today.
Little movement in Milan: the Ftse Mib index closed down by 0,3%, at 21.791 points. The worst place is Madrid, -0,8%. More similar to Milan are Paris, -0,38%; London, -0,36%; Frankfurt, -0,33%.
Investor confidence in the eurozone improved in early September despite concerns related to the Korean threat and the potential impact of the escalating emissions scandal in Germany and developments related to the performance of the US economy. According to a Frankfurt-based Sentix poll, the index in the euro zone rose to 28,2 points from 27,7 points in August.
The publication of the PMI service indices for August in the euro area is expected today, from which a confirmation of the economic recovery picture could emerge. As regards Italy, expectations are for an index slightly down from the ten-year record recorded in July (to 55,5 points from 56,3).
VOLKSWAGEN STOP SALE OF DUCATI
New slap to Volkswagen's image (+0,20%): the Wolfsburg house, together with two local joint ventures, will have to withdraw 1.818.340 vehicles in China due to problems with the petrol pump.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the strong opposition of the unions that sit on the group's board puts the sale of Ducati at risk. Five offers of around 1,5 billion euros were presented for the Audi-controlled Bolognese company. Sales of new cars in Germany rose 3,5% in August to around 253.500 vehicles.
AWAITING FOR THE ECB, THE SPREAD STABLE
Quiet session for the Italian bond even for the holiday day on the US markets: the spread on the Bund remains below 170 basis points. The rate on the ten-year BTP fluctuated within a few cents, between a maximum of 2,07% at the opening and a minimum of 2,04%. Traders gear up for Thursday's ECB meeting. Frankfurt could give the first concrete details on how the process of progressive reduction of Qe will unfold after the end of the year.
But the current strength of the euro could direct the central bank towards the most gradual possible program reduction path. According to today's data from the ECB, purchases of securities by the Italian public sector as part of the QE fell to around 7,7 billion in August, from 9,6 in the previous month: a trend that is linked to the general decline in purchases in month of greatest slowdown in market activity. In August, the Qe program advanced by around 50 billion against the monthly target of 60.
Spain will make up to €5,25 billion in four different government bonds available to investors in the auction on Thursday 7 September.
WINDS OF WAR, LEONARDO STARTS AGAIN
On Piazza Affari's blue chip list, the declines are widespread in all sectors with some, few, exceptions, among which Leonardo stands out, up by 3,8%5, with volumes over three and a half times the monthly average, accelerating the recovery movement on the suggestions of a general increase in defense spending after the provocations by Pyongyang. Sitting on the shields for Stm (+1,2%) which goes back to the closing highs from the beginning of June just below 15 euros. Eems flew among the small caps, up 23,7%.
ITALY-FRANCE: FINCANTIERI FLYS, TELECOM SLIDES
Different destinies for the titles covered by the various dossiers opened between Italy and France. Fincantieri jumped by 7,3% after the soothing words received over the weekend from the French economy minister, who will meet Padoan on 11 September. Mediobanca (neutral, target price €1,13) is optimistic about the agreement, while Banca Akros (neutral, target price €1,1) is among the most skeptical.
On the other hand, a sharp decrease for Telecom Italia (-1,4%). Banca Imi maintains a positive view on the stock (buy, target price 1,08 euros) declaring that the share is "undervalued", considering the fundamentals, and that fears about the competitive threats linked to Open Fiber and Iliad are "excessive". Since the beginning of the year, Telecom Italia stock has lost 7% and is one of the worst blue chips in Piazza Affari.
Mediaset also down (-1,4%). The stock began to decline after it emerged that Mediaset's claim for damages to Vivendi amounts to a total of 3 billion euros. In the absence of an agreement, the next hearing will be on December 19. Ubs (rating sell) lowers the target price to 2,95 euros and Equita to 3,6 euros (rating hold).
HSBC PROMOTES DIVIDEND AND SALES OF GENERALI
Weak banks like in Europe (the Stoxx index -0,9%). Banco Bpm closes at the bottom of the Ftse Mib basket with a loss of 2,3% followed by Bper -1,5%. Unicredit -0,4%, Intesa -0,2%.
Among the insurances, the rise of Generali stands out (+0,6%), promoted to Buy from Hold by HSBC. According to the investment bank, the group has higher dividend yields than the industry average and a lower price-to-earnings ratio. The report signed by the analyst Dhruv Gahlaut also states that the resources coming from the divestments could be higher than one billion euros, the goal that the company has set itself. Unipol -0,8%.
REVERSE OF EXOR AND FCA. THE BOMB BRAKES LUXURY
Stronger movements among industrial stocks. After last week's leaps, the Agnelli team retreats: Fiat Chrysler drops by 1,3%, Exor -2,2%, affected by the results after the words of Sergio Marchionne who said he has not received any offers and will not he's working on no "major deal," while reiterating componentry spinoff plans.
Ferrari, unchanged, recovers after the losses of the morning and the disappointments for the outcome of the Monza GP. Two brokers yesterday projected the target price above 100 euros. Fidentiis confirmed the Buy judgment, bringing the target price to 111,50 euros, from 85 euros. Equita also confirmed the Buy, bringing the target to 110 euros from 85 euros. Cnh Industrial -0,2%.
Geopolitical tensions are bad for tourism and consequently risk having a negative impact on sales of luxury goods: Ferragamo loses 1,5%, Moncler -0,7%. Société Générale strengthened the Buy rating, raising the target price to 28 euros from 27 euros. Yoox -1,7%.
THE TAKEOVER OFFER ON CALTAGIRONE EDITORE IS TOWARDS THE FLOP
Caltagirone Editore runs (+13,6%) well above the tender offer price (1 euro) under the pressure of the purchases of funds (including Amber which holds over 5% of the capital). The voluntary offer promoted by the Caltagirone family to remove the shares from the Stock Exchange seems destined to fail.
The utilities moved little: Enel -0,5%. The energy giant is ready to invest up to 300 million euros over the next three years to increase the use of electric cars. Snam -0,1%. De'Longhi (-4%) and Piaggio (-2,1%) go down. Astaldi +3,5% and Maire Tecnimont +3,4%.
