Positive European stock exchanges in the last session of June in view of the highly anticipated data onUS inflation which will be published at 14.30 pm Italian time and which could be fundamental for future decisions of the Federal Reserve on the stars and stripes monetary policy, with the American central bank possibly deciding to carry out at least one rate cut during 2024. It also remains to be seen what the effect of the first TV debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump after the defeat of the current president. For the moment, US futures are rising.
Inflation in Italy, France and Spain
While waiting for US consumer prices, investors "console themselves" with the data arrived this morning from Italy, France and Spain.
In June Italian inflation it remained at the same level as the previous two months, with the stabilization of the growth rate mainly due to the easing of tensions on unprocessed food prices. According to preliminary estimates from Istat, in June the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), including tobacco, increased by 0,1% on a monthly basis and by 0,8% on an annual basis, as in the previous month.
In a France agitated by the early elections, the consumer price index instead increased by 2,1% in June on an annual basis, slightly down compared to 2,3% in May, starting to fall again after a slight acceleration in May ( when it increased by 0,1 point compared to April). As of June 2023 it still stood at 4,5%.
In SpainAccording to the preliminary estimate, the annual rate of consumer price inflation fell to 3,4% in June 2024, down from a one-year high of 3,6% recorded in May. Analysts had forecast it at 3,3%. Finally, Germany
In this context, the ECB's median expectations for inflation in the next 12 months decreased further in May to 2,8%, compared to 2,9% in April, reaching the lowest level since September 2021. This is what emerges from the European Central Bank's usual monthly index on expectations of European consumers. Median expectations for three-year inflation also fell further in the month to 2,3%, compared to 2,4% in April. Uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to the lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the survey found.
European stock markets rise amid inflation and electoral fears
Less than 24 hours away fromagreement on EU nominations to the European Council, European stock markets are rising with a an eye already on France where the first round of early elections called by President Macron after his party's European debacle will be held on Sunday. It is no coincidence that, in a context substantially tinged with green, it is Paris the only stock market down (-0,38%), weighed down by fears over the outcome of the vote.
On the contrary, the better it is Frankfurt (+0,55%) closely followed by Milano which, in the last session of the first half of the year, recorded +0,46% at 33.339 basis points, driven by Iveco, Tenaris, Unipol and MPS.
Positive too Amsterdam (+ 0,43%) and Madrid (+0,25%), while outside the EU London gains half a percentage point four days before the elections which could mark the defeat of the Conservative Party and the clear victory of the Labor Party.
On the European stock market, the performances of are worth mentioning Nokia (+1,8%) which agreed to buy Infinera Corp in a deal worth $2,3 billion. The sportswear giant is down sharply in London (-4,9%). JD Sports after the US company Nike (-14,9% in Wall Street pre-market) predicted a surprise drop in revenue for 2025. For the same reason, it also falls Puma (-4,7%), while Adidas (+1%) reverses course after initial losses.
Finally in Paris the spotlight is on Air France-Klm (-4,38%) after Barclays cut the Franco-Dutch airline group to “equal-weight” from “overweight” due to political uncertainty.
Piazza Affari is close to +10% since the beginning of the year
Piazza Affari is set to close the last session of the first half of 2024 on a positive note, with the balance since the beginning of the year which reaches +9,86%, one of the best performances of the old continent together with Amsterdam, unattainable with its +18%, Frankfurt (+9,47%) and Madrid (+8,66%). London also did well (+6,35%). Political excesses have instead cost him dearly Paris, the only stock market to be negative in the six months (-0,87%).
Returning to today, purchases are driving Piazza Affari Iveco (+ 2,94%), Unipol (+ 2,19%) and Leonardo (+2,05%). Oil prices rise sharply: Tenaris (+ 2,68%), Saipem (+1,86%) ed Eni (+1%). Banks are doing well with Ps (+ 2,19%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+ 1,47%).
Sales hit instead Brunello Cucinelli (-2,16%), Terna (-1,72%) And Prysmian (-1,37%).
The spread exceeds 160 points ahead of the French vote
Tensions over European appointments, but above all fears over French elections, are causing the price to rise spread between BTPs and Bunds, which rose from 158 points on Thursday to 161 basis points, the highest level since January 2024. The differential between the French 10-year Oat and the corresponding German one. Turning instead to rates, the yield on ten-year BTP benchmark is at 4,08% from 4,03% the day before, the Waist stands at 2,47% (+1,3%), the Oat 10 at 3,26% (+2,17%).
On the currency, the exchange euro Dollar it is stable at 1,07, the same level as Thursday, while it trades weakly yen, which reached new lows since 1986 against the greenback and historic lows against the euro. Its year-on-year loss is 12,5%, the third-worst performance internationally.
Among raw materials, prices are still rising Petroleum, with Brent at 87,04 dollars a bari (+0,75%) and WTI at 82,35 dollars (same percentage increase). Finally, in Amsterdam the price of natural gas, which fell to 34,4 euros per megawatt hour.
