It is the eighth time for Latin America, after Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua. It's the first time ever for Mexico. claudia sheinbaum, 61 years old, after being the first female mayor of Mexico City, has since yesterday been the first female president of the Central American country.
Mexico: who is Claudia Sheinbaum
With a sober profile, accused of lacking charisma and even - by her opponents - of being an "ice woman", the engineer of Jewish origins, indicated by the outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) as heir to the leadership of the Morena party and challenged by another woman, the indigenous and conservative Xóchitl Gálvez, she won by a wide margin, almost 60% of the vote. A historic and overwhelming victory, with the opponent trailing by more than 30 percentage points, and a majority in Congress that should reach 2/3 of the seats and which will therefore be qualified, allowing the next government to also modify the Constitution, as the outgoing president AMLO tried to do in the last legislature, in order to be able to run again. In fact, in the Chamber Claudia Sheinbaum will be able to count on 346 out of 500 deputies, while in the Senate the majority is a little less pervasive but still more than consistent, with 76 out of 128 senators.
Justice, economy, international positioning: Sheinbaum's challenges
With these numbers it will be possible, in particular, to realize AMLO's dream of completely redesign the justice system, starting from the Supreme Court. But the real challenge will be oneconomy and international positioning. Sheinbaum has already received warm congratulations from virtually the entire Latin American world, particularly from Brazil Squid, who in the message sent to his counterpart spoke of an "ideological profile close to the progressive people of the world", hoping for a greater commercial agreement: "We are the two largest economies in the area but our trade is still weak", said the president Brazilian. In truth, Mexico's ambitions are rather aimed at the other side of the continent, North America in particular the United States, who with their reshoring strategy are moving their offshore investments from Asia to Mexico. The Central American country has returned to being the Washington's first trading partner in 2023 and this helped GDP grow by 3,1%, against forecasts which at the beginning of the year were much more conservative and predicted a +1,6%.
Mexico has become according to the projections of the International Monetary Fund the twelfth economy in the world (it was the fourteenth), with GDP estimated to grow again this year between 2,1 and 2,5%. The country's destiny is therefore also linked to upcoming US elections, scheduled for November: Joe Biden's confirmation would leave Sheinbaum with the wind in her sails, while things could change if Donald Trump wins.
Market reaction: Stock market down 6%
At the moment, however, the reactions of the financial markets were lukewarm to say the least: in the aftermath of Claudia Sheinbaum's victory, in the session on Monday 3 June the Mexico City Stock Exchange was traveling in deep red, with losses exceeding 6%. What is probably scaring investors is precisely the ambitions of the government majority overturn the Constitution: already on the eve of the vote the peso had lost value against the dollar, falling to 17,55, the lowest level since last November. Yesterday the weight checked it rose to 17,67 but the signs remain of mistrust: “The result – some analysts comment in the South American press – opens up a scenario of greater political risk and uncertainty for the economic climate. The threats to the system of 'checks and balances' in Mexico are greater."
By "checks and balances" we clearly mean the balance between the statist interventionism of the outgoing government and the free market, as promised by the new president, who was elected in the name of continuity with AMLO, but then expressly swore loyalty to economic freedom, promising to facilitate private investments, both national and foreign: “It will be an honest government – said Sheinbaum, who will lead a country of 130 million inhabitants -, without corruption. It will be a government of republican austerity."
Mexico is not a Central American country, it is NORTH AMERICAN, basically!