Has the wind in Italian politics changed and today the future of the Meloni Government is more uncertain than just a few months ago and can new horizons be opened up as, in other ways, is happening in America with the presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris? Long-time politician, parliamentarian for five legislatures in which he was President of the senators of the Democratic Party and previously assistant to Francesco Cossiga first at the Interior Ministry and then at the Quirinale, Louis Zanda he is a special observer who, thanks to his experience and expertise, can help us correctly interpret the current Italian political phase and also the prospects of the American presidential campaign after Joe Biden's withdrawal. That's what he does in this interview with FIRST online where he lists all the errors of Prime Minister Meloni, carefully evaluates their possible consequences and glimpses new elements both in the centre-right (from the Berlusconi family to the good electoral result of Forza Italia) and around the centre-left (with the fall of the vetoes between Renzi and Schlein) which can prepare new scenarios. Just as Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race for the White House and Harris' candidacy "fortunately changed" the American election campaign and reopened the challenge to Donald Trump. But here's the interview with Zanda.
The Meloni Government seemed to have the wind in its sails until the European elections but the Prime Minister's disagreement over European appointments, with the isolation of Italy and the split of the national majority, seems to have made the Prime Minister lose her magic touch: for the 'Italy and has the sentiment changed for Meloni?
“Prime Minister Meloni made a serious mistake in political analysis and was unable to correctly interpret the phase we are going through. You thought that your electoral victory two years ago made you the head of Italy and not the Prime Minister. Very serious errors arose from this erroneous reading: 1) the constitutional design on the premiership in the illusion that the Prime Minister would thus receive the popular consensus that would give her full powers, without understanding that transforming our parliamentary Republic into a presidential Republic would not responds to the fundamental principles of the Constitution, which the Council has declared inviolable. Hence the immediate adverse reaction of the centre-left and the distrust, albeit well disguised, of its government allies (Lega and Forza Italia), rightly intolerant of a project of absolute domination by the prime minister; 2) the familism with which you characterized your management of the Government and the party and the ease with which you allowed Salvini to impose differentiated autonomy; 3) the stubborn opposition to the approval of the ESM which has pushed Italy into a dark corner and blocked Europe on a fundamental mechanism for combating financial crises".
Is this how the prime minister has lost her magic touch and that the country's sentiment is no longer as favorable to her as it was at the beginning?
“In reality, Giorgia Meloni never had the magic touch and the country's sentiment was one of surprise because Italy was not ready to have a right-wing government with ancient roots in fascism. Meloni has thus missed the great opportunity to transform the centre-right from nostalgic and nationalist positions into a conservative and liberal political force of European style".
Was the No to the nomination of Ursula von der Leyen as Presidency of the Council and of Antonio Costa as Presidency of the European Council the apogee of Meloni's drift?
“In international relations, the Prime Minister relied too much on her cunning and believed that relations with different countries and their leaders could be resolved with public relations (frequent trips, kisses with Ursula von der Leyen, smiles at guests) without understanding that foreign policy is made up of something else and cannot be improvised. The idea of Fratelli d'Italia to communicate its vote in the European Parliament until after the election of von der Leyen was one of those cunning tricks that don't pay off. But, above all, let's not forget that in Europe, Italy is still the country that blocks 26 countries of the European Union with the failure to sign the ESM, a serious vulnerability because it shows the ability to sacrifice the interests of the EU to its own partisan interests or party."
The Italian political scene appears less static today than a few months ago and the statements of the Berlusconi family, not without criticism towards Meloni and in favor of greater Forza Italia activism, were surprising: is this another element that can weaken the Meloni Government?
“The Berlusconi family has an undisputed influence on Forza Italia because it has a very substantial economic credit towards the party, but the most interesting political element is that in the last European elections Forza Italia received more votes than Salvini's League and that this “ success” may have pushed his management team to imagine a new amazing season, so much so that Tajani had the imprudence to say that FI aims to reach 20%. The effects on the stability of the majority are evident because Meloni thus finds himself having to deal with a more ambitious and more media-focused Forza Italia and a Salvini who is very worried about his future to the point of accentuating his Putinian Trumpism. This is why the political future of the Meloni Government is less calm than its first two years and today the coalition risks becoming more difficult in the face of the economic challenges that await it, starting with the new budget law and the new European constraints".
The end of the mutual vetoes between the Democratic Party and Renzi and the possibility of expanding the left to the center are another novelty of the season: where can it lead?
“In Italy, since there is no bipartisanship like in the United Kingdom and the United States, one can only govern with coalitions, which can only exist if there is a pivot party. The first need of the Italian centre-left is to have a strong Democratic Party and in fact it was enough for the Democratic Party to reach 24% in the European elections for Conte to change his attitude and Renzi to join the Democratic Party. Both Renzi and the Five Star Movement are two positive developments, but we must keep our eyes open, because Conte has accustomed us to his changes in position and Renzi's was a very painful split for the Democratic Party. Having said that, I have a lot of respect for Renzi's intelligence and mental vivacity, but so far his political initiatives have been guided by his desire to always be at the center of the scene. If Renzi manages to contain his protagonism, his coalition relations with the center-left could benefit greatly. In a democracy we must always subordinate personal interests to general ones and this also applies to Renzi."
Today, how likely is the Meloni government to reach the natural end of the legislature?
“Until now Meloni has always said she is interested in governing with the majority resulting from the political elections until 2027, but if Salvini's disagreements and Tajani's ambitions were to make navigation very difficult, if the prime minister was not able to re-establish a good relationship with Europe and if the country's economic difficulties prove to be greater than expected, then early elections would become the only possible solution".
There are those who say that on an international level Meloni is starting to wink at Trump: what do you think and what effects would it have on Italy's economic, defense and international policy?
“On an international level, Meloni's specific weight is very relative, but for all of Europe the relationship with the United States is vital. In the geopolitics of recent decades, the importance of the military variant has increasingly emerged which places the issue of security as a priority for all democracies and the security of the EU depends on relations with the USA, whoever governs in America, be they the Republicans or the Democrats . This applies to Italy as well as France, Spain, Poland and other European partners. Afterwards, Biden's refusal to run for the US Presidency fortunately changed the scenario, transforming the bold Trump into an old, worn-out figure characterized by personal behaviors which for many American judges were sufficient to indict him for very serious tax crimes, sexually and for his support of the attack on Capitol Hill."
Does this mean that Kamala Harris has any hope of turning the tide and winning the White House for the American Democrats?
“If in the next hundred days Harris is able to conduct her electoral campaign with intelligence and effectiveness, Trump's victory, considered certain until a few weeks ago, will become impossible, also because there is a Republican electorate, conservative but democratic, who has fear of Trump's dangerous behavior. It is a part of the Republican electorate that perhaps will not vote for Harris but who most likely will not go to vote. Harris can do it due to her personality, her energy of hope and her vision of the future, but she must not give Trump any concessions, forcing him onto the defensive every day. We didn't expect it but the game has reopened."
