I crucial nodes of global trade of goods they find themselves under pressure and the greatest consequences affect the security andreliability of the maritime transport: Red Sea, Strait of Malacca, Panama Canal and Taiwan Strait. Estimating that approximately 80% of the volume and 50% of the value of goods travel by sea, this interruption of vital flows is causing a domino effect.
Changing routes causes costs to explode
The major global carriers they reacted modifying routes, reorganizing fleets, increasing the speed of ships. But this one had a price: shipping costs, the so-called freight rates, have skyrocketed, with increases of almost 350% for some routes. The outcome It's an altered maritime landscape: passages in key straits have dropped dramatically, while costs have exploded.
From the beginning of December 2023 to the beginning of May 2024 i transits in the Red Sea have fallen by 61,5%, while those aroundAfrica they grew by 91,5%. From the end of February, the steps for Melaka they fell by 37,9%. Total transits in the main maritime chokepoints have significantly reduced (by -22,6% according to the Study Center of Confindustria).
Accordingly, they are transport costs jumped between Asia and Europe and, to a lesser extent, those between Asia and America. In particular: Shanghai-Genoa freight rates increased by 3 and a half times at the end of January, and then only partially decreased (still +207,4% at the beginning of May); equivalent dynamics for Shanghai-Rotterdam (+216,7%). Freight rates between China and the US reacted with a slight delay, reaching a peak in February and recording increases of around 100% at the beginning of May. Furthermore, the route between Shanghai and New York remains expensive even forhalf-service operation in the Panama Canal. Overall, the costs of global shipping at the beginning of May they stood at levels 128,6% higher than five months earlier.
The repercussions for Italy
THEItaly, with its heavy dependence on seaborne imports, is located frontline to face the consequences. The Suez route, in particular, is a crucial point for the Made in Italy:: almost 60% of purchases from abroad in volume (35% in value) take place by sea, and the majority of these flows come from non-EU markets. A third of trade with 39 Asian and Middle Eastern markets located beyond Suez takes place by sea, and this figure rises to almost 50% if only Italian non-EU imports are considered.
The increase in shipping costs translates into a increase in the price of imported goods and in severe delays insupply of raw materials and semi-finished products. According to thesurvey on inflation and growth expectations conducted by the Bank of Italy, in the 1st quarter of 2024, around a third of manufacturing companies encountered these problems, which heavily affect the competitiveness of Italian products. This also weighs on foreign accounts, because Italian industry often delegates the management of the logistics chain to its foreign counterpart.
Manufacturing production was also affected
Furthermore, the increase in shipping costs also affects shipping prices production in manufacturing, with an average increase of +0,9%, a still moderate value, but with strong sectoral differences. Chemistry and metallurgy are the most affected sectors, with increases of 3,6% and 3,4% respectively. However, this effect is partly compensated, at the moment, from a deflationary push coming from China, thanks to which import prices recorded -1,6% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
In the medium term, a increase in the maritime fleet may be able to meet demand and guarantee longer and more stable routes, but variable shipping costs (hours worked, fuel consumption) would remain higher, with an increase for Italy of +50% with Japan, +70% with China and +170% with India, in terms of distance. The future trend of prices will therefore depend on the evolution of geopolitical and climatic factors, as well as on the strategies adopted by operators in the maritime sector.
Innovation in logistics, supplier diversification and collaboration between operators will be key factors in weathering this storm and moving towards a more stable future. In fact, all these challenges underline the need for a profound transformation of the maritime transport sector.
