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Macron, the calculated gamble of early elections and the hard time the President will give Le Pen

French President Macron's surprise move to dissolve Parliament and call early general elections is anything but a stroke of madness and may expose the contradictions of the populist and pro-Putin strategy of Le Pen's party

Macron, the calculated gamble of early elections and the hard time the President will give Le Pen

Getting on the winner's bandwagon, real or presumed, and abandoning those considered to be in decline has always been a widely practiced sport. Just see what's going on in France where the polls predict a relative majority for the party of Marine Le Pen, second place for the Popular Front of the left and the fall of the Macronists to third place. However, in a two-round system the average of the votes does not make much sense and votes do not always equal seats. However, everything can be said about the surprise dissolution of Parliament and the sudden calling of new political elections for the President Emmanuel Macron except it was a senseless choice. Risky yes, but senseless no. The objective of the Head of State is to make the French face their responsibilities in the face of the nightmare of a country in the hands of pro-Putin right-wing extremists, but it is also to challenge the Lepenists by exposing their fragilities, whether they conquer the relative majority in the new Parliament and whether they make the big move to reach the absolute majority. In the first case Jordan Bardella, the inexperienced rising star of the right of RN (Marine Le Pen's party), who “Le Monde” defines contemptuously as a robot, he will find himself forming a minority government at the mercy of the waves or a government of difficult coexistence in a very complicated economic and social phase for France where many of the demagogic promises of the Lepenist far right will melt like snow in the sun. In the unlikely event that Marine Le Pen's party gains an absolute majority in Parliament, the obstacles that the far right will find in its path will be no less great. For at least two reasons: firstly because the Constitution still entrusts Foreign Affairs and Defense to the President of the Republic. The Bardella Government would be left with the Interior and the Economy which - here is the second difficulty - is however monitored by an implacable stone guest, represented by the always fearsome financial markets which, both with the striking decline in MY BAG that with the surge of the Oat-Bund spread of recent days, have already made it clear that they will not remain inert in the face of the antics and blunders of the Lepenists. Even at the cost of causing France's financial crisis. Paris would pay dearly for the victory of the Lepenists who will certainly be given a hard time by Macron and who would risk arriving more worn out than ever at the 2027 presidential elections, the one in which Le Pen wins or definitively exits the scene. Therefore, he who laughs last laughs best, but Macron's bet is anything but a stroke of madness, even if the Popular Front didn't realize it and right-thinking is always the unconscious ally of maximalism.

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