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Lula and the new Petrobras: from goose that lays golden eggs for the members to strategic pawn in Brazil's international relations

These are months of important news for the Brazilian oil giant, which with the new board of directors has said goodbye to the very generous dividend policy to focus on investments and above all on international partnerships, from China to the Arab world

Lula and the new Petrobras: from goose that lays golden eggs for the members to strategic pawn in Brazil's international relations

Big movements around Petrobras. The Brazilian oil giant is in an important phase news after the re-election of Squid, given that the Government is the first shareholder with 28,67% of the capital and influences the strategies of what is known to be a goose that lays golden eggs for its shareholders. Petrobras, in fact, in 2022 was the company in the world to distribute the most dividends, reaching a record of 215,7 billion reais, equal to over 40 billion euros, double the previous year. President Lula himself intervened precisely on this generous policy, convincing the Board of Directors to change its orientation, to the point that in the second quarter of this year Petrobras recorded the largest reduction in the coupon worldwide compared to the same period last year. cutting from 24,7 billion to less than 15 billion reais.

Lula's new Petrobras does not shake the markets

The operation, which adversely affects the public accounts since the State is the shareholder, however, it has not shaken the markets, indeed Petrobras has gained 50% from May to today Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, going from 22 reais per share (which in truth was the minimum since January 2023) to 33 reais, in a constant rally due above all to the recent rise above expectations in the price of crude oil (Brent above 90 dollars after the production cut announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia) et al all-time record for exports of Petrobras, which has never sold so much "black gold" abroad as so far in 2023. Between January and July, the Brazilian giant exported an average of 1,5 million barrels per day: only in March did it sell abroad almost 10 million tonnes, +75% compared to March 2022. The balance between imports and exports of oil, derivatives and gas also reached an all-time record of 12 billion dollars between January and July, against 9,8 billion in the same time last year.

Brazil getting closer to China and Russia

But important innovations are also in the pipeline, and perhaps above all, on the front of international strategies. In this case the speech is hand in glove with the foreign policy of the Lula government, which after its ambiguous positions on the war in Ukraine and the less than idyllic relations with Washington and the European Union, further forced its hand by supporting the strategy of China and Russia, which have decided to include new countries such as Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Argentina and Ethiopia among the BRICS. The intent is clear and has also been officially declared: to strengthen a new international axis da oppose the G7, in which to also include - if not formally at least as sympathizers - countries clearly hostile to the West such as Cuba,Iran and the Venezuela.

For Lula friendships of convenience

It is easy to understand how Petrobras has something to do with all this, given that the Lula government is intensifying its friendship with Beijing in particular: already last year the Brazil has become the first partner of China globally, and on the occasion of the Brazilian president's visit to his counterpart Xi Jinping, last April, the two signed 15 chords of collaboration in the areas of renewable energy, automotive, raw materials, technology, infrastructure and also education and health. And it is no coincidence that China now seems to be a priority for the state oil company as well. The same CEO Jean Paul Prates, appointed by Lula himself, told Reuters that after a period of cooling of relations under the Bolsonaro government, which instead squinted more towards the US than Trump, "the company is re-establishing relations and we plan to open a branch in Chinese territory by June 2024".

This in the plans of Petrobras, and above all of the government of Brasilia, would help the South American country to derive benefits in terms of Chinese investments in Brazil, especially in the field ofnaval industry, and also to join the increasingly numerous projects that Beijing is carrying out in Africa. Without forgetting the Arab world, which freshly joined the BRICS is all the more a strategic partner in the field of oil: Petrobras recently also signed a new agreement with the bottom Mudabala Capital, already active in Brazil, to produce renewable fuels, based on vegetable oils, in the Bahia refinery.

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