Lombardy's GDP slows down. In 2023, it is expected that the growth of the Lombardy economy stop at + 0,9 %, higher than the +0,7% expected for the whole of Italy, but significantly lower than the +3,2% recorded in 2022.
Current expectations represent a downward revision compared to the forecasts formulated last July, when growth of +1,3% was expected. A revision attributed to the decelerating global context.
This is what emerges from the economics booklet created by Assolombarda Study Center and published in Genio&Impresa.
Weak growth also for 2024
The analysis underlines that in 2023, dividing the macroeconomic sectors, in Lombardy there was aexpansion in services (+1,9%) and in agriculture (+1,0%), while industry recorded a contraction (-1,9%), which had already slowed down since the spring, and construction suffered a contraction (-0,7 ,XNUMX%).
Weak growth is expected to continue in 2024, with GDP for the Lombardy economy estimated at +0,6%, and for Italy at +0,4%.
Employment increases
As far as the 'occupation, the study indicates that a increase of +1,1% in the number of employed in the area. At the end of the year, Lombardy should close the gap with pre-Covid levels, recording an increase of +0,5% compared to 2019. The increase in employment in the region will also continue in 2024, with rates in line with GDP, expected at +0,6%.
Business expectations
For both the current quarter and the first few months of 2024, the majority of companies expect one stability or a worsening of the economic context compared to the previous period.
Over the next year as a whole, 40% of companies expect a regional economic situation similar to 2023, 34% expect a worsening, and only a fifth expect an improvement. Regarding the number of employees, in 2023 45% of companies increased their staff and 38% kept it unchanged, while in 2024 the percentage of companies expecting expansion fell to 33%, while those expecting stability rose to 53%.
Confidence in manufacturing and services is declining
Due to the slow growth, in October there was a further - albeit slight - decline in the climate of confidence in the manufacturing sector both in Italy and in the North-West. In particular, there is a continued decline in orders and production levels, both at their lowest levels since November 2020. At the same time, there is a reduction in inventories of finished goods and an increase in short-term expectations for orders and production, although the latter remain negative. In comparison with other European countries, confidence in the manufacturing sector remains generally negative in Germany, France and Spain.
Confidence in the service sector is also declining, while remaining positive, but reaching the lowest level in the last eleven months. We observe a significant decline in company performance (close to zero) and a contraction in orders, while expectations for demand in the next 3-4 months are more optimistic. At a national level, the index also drops in Italy, but records an increase in Germany, Spain and France (the only country with a negative index in the area).
"The numbers indicate a slowdown in the Italian economy and our territories, within a fragile and uncertain international context. Various factors have an influence: ongoing conflicts, the weakness of some economies, the German recession, price volatility, difficulties in accessing credit – he declared Alessandro Spada, President of Assolombarda -. But, despite this slowdown, we remain the large European country whose economy has recovered most vigorously since the pandemic. Today, even if we grow 0,7% in 2023, at the end of the year we will be +3% above pre-Covid levels. And, according to our latest estimates on a regional basis, Lombardy will close 2023 with a positive difference compared to before the pandemic of up to +3,7%. If we look at the other European countries, Germany, in recession this year, reaches +0,5% at the end of 2023 compared to 2019; France with 1% growth expected for the current year reaches +1,6%; Spain at +2,3%; the United Kingdom at +0,1%. And, according to the forecasts for 2024, even if slowing down, we will always remain among the best performing. The work of our companies, of international excellence, has driven and continues to drive the country even in such a complicated geopolitical scenario. But now it is fundamental stimulate private investment so as not to stop the economy: we support innovation through the relaunch of Industry 4.0 and its developments. It is a strategic measure to maintain and increase the strength and security of businesses and, consequently, of the country in the increasingly difficult international competition which sees powers such as China and the USA putting trillions of dollars into play".
