Lombardia confirms itself as the main driving force of Italian recovery, with a growth forecast of Regional GDP of +1,1% for 2024. This increase not only exceeds the growth expectations for Italy forecast by Prometeia (+0,9%), but also stands out from the European average (+0,7%). This is what emerges from the economy booklet of Assolombarda Study Center according to which at the end of this year the regional economy would thus reach a +6,7% compared to 2019, for a total of almost 81 billion euros in additional gross domestic product at current values generated in the five-year period following the pandemic . Compared to the national GDP growth of +4,4% on 2019, the Lombard result appears remarkable, even surpassing the performances of European regions such as Baden-Württemberg (+0,7%), Bayern (+2,3%) and Cataluña (+4,8%).
However, the economic landscape is not without its challenges. The report from the Assolombarda Study Center indicates that, while i services and construction continue to support the growth regional, l'industriesa showed signs of slowing in the first half of 2024 and the recovery is expected only in the second half of the year. This slowdown is attributed to weakness in both domestic and global demand, as well as the impact of restrictive monetary policy measures, inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Assolombarda's analysis
On the front occupational, the analysis predicts a growth in the number of workers in Lombardy of +0,9% per year for 2024. Although this increase is lower than the national average +1,4%, it still represents growth compared to pre-Covid levels (+ 2% or +90 thousand employed).
Moving on to perspectives of the companies, a survey conducted in July by Assolombarda among 373 industry and service associates revealed a forecast of improvement for the Lombardy economy starting from the autumn and winter months of 2024. For 2025, 46% of companies expect growth, while 9,4% expect a worsening. However, over a sixth of companies did not provide a response, highlighting a context of uncertainty.
The most recent data indicates a decline in the climate of confidence in the North-West, with a decrease in orders, an increase in inventories of finished products and disappointing production forecasts for the coming months. These factors confirm a weak first half of the year.
It flies, i Loans businesses in Lombardy showed a contraction of -2,7% in March 2024, continuing the negative trend that began a year ago. This contraction is more marked than in other Italian regions, with the Veneto which saw a decline of 7,6%, theEmilia Romagna by 4,2% and the Piemonte of 5,8% (the national average is -4,2%). The contraction concerns both small businesses (-9,3%) and large ones (-1,9%), with manufacturing (-7,1%) and construction (-7%) particularly affected, while loans to services recorded a more limited decline (-0,5%).
Alessandro Spada: “Positive growth, but strong European industrial policies are needed”
Alessandro Swordfish, president of Assolombarda, commented: “The growth estimates of our territory continue to improve, a sign of a structurally vital and competitive economic system. Industries have driven the post-pandemic recovery, allowing the territories of Milan, Monza and Brianza, Lodi and Pavia, as well as Lombardy and the whole of Italy, to achieve extraordinary results at an international level. However, the first part of 2024 proved complex for the industry, with a slowdown caused by weak global and domestic demand, restrictive monetary policy measures, inflation, high energy prices and geopolitical tensions. This situation underlines the need to define favorable industrial policies at European level. The new Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen for the five-year period 2024-2029, must overcome anti-industrial ideology and take concrete action in three fundamental areas: people, investments and energy. Only with targeted policies in these areas will Europe be able to strengthen its competitiveness and maintain its status as the second largest manufacturing industry in the world.”
