If the numbers don't lie, they often tell us only half the truth. It is from this premise that we start Massimo Taddei in his "The numbers don't add up. The numbers speak to us, let's learn to read them to understand why Italy is no longer growing“. Taddei, economic journalist and co-founder and director of Economika, the reality of the Starting Finance group that reports on political and economic current events on social networks and offline, guides us in an in-depth analysis of the economic stagnation of the country.
The title of the book is clear and direct: behind every statistic there are complex dynamics that, if not interpreted carefully, risk distorting reality. With this volume, Taddei invites us not to stop at the surface of the numbers, but to read between the lines of aeconomy struggling to take off and which, for decades, seems unable to find a way out of stagnation.
The great enigma of Italian growth (or rather, its absence)
The book opens with a fact that cannot be ignored: for over twenty years, Italy is not growing. After the post-war boom, which saw an extraordinary expansion of GDP, the Italian economy suffered a dramatic slowdown. This stalemate intensified with the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in 2012. While countries like the United States recovered quickly, Italy remained mired in the mud. The cause of this long stalemate, Taddei explains, is not a single cause but rather the result of multiple factors that intertwine, creating a vicious circle that is difficult to break.
One of the main problems is the rate of employment, dramatically low: less than two out of three Italians work, a figure well below the European average. Added to this difficulty is a productivity stagnant (+0,2% since 1995, against +16% in France and Germany) and a work demographic unbalanced. The Italian population is aging, while the birth rate remains among the lowest in Europe, without an adequate generational turnover to sustain long-term growth.
Another determining factor is the delay in theeducation and training: Italy is the second to last country in the EU in terms of percentage of graduates and among the last for continuous training. This limits the development of human capital and reduces opportunities for innovation. This combination of elements is also reflected in the wagesthat I am stagnant for over thirty years: between 1990 and 2023, real wages in Italy actually decreased by 2,9%, while in Germany they increased by 34%. The gap with the rest of Europe grows every year, making Italy less and less competitive and more distant from the most advanced economies.
Further complicating the situation are other structural factors. The pension expenditure has grown exponentially, reaching 2023 billion euros in 317, equal to 15,3% of GDP, one of the highest values among OECD countries. debt continues to grow, the public administration It is often inefficient and the tax burden remains high, without these factors being accompanied by an adequate increase in economic growth. In this context, it becomes increasingly difficult to start a serious economic recovery.
The consequences are clear: the country suffers from a constant hemorrhage of talent. Every year about 25 thousand graduates leave Italy seeking better opportunities abroad, further exacerbating the shortage of skilled labor.
A book that helps to understand
At the end, The accounts don't add up offers us a clear and disenchanted reading of the Italian economic reality. GDP is not growing because the country is hostage to a series of structural factors that suffocate innovation, competitiveness and productivity. In this context, a radical change in economic policies is essential, which is not limited to temporary solutions, but which favors a true relaunch of the country. Only in this way will Italy finally be able to grow again.
