Of the 23 thousand Italian goods exhibited at the American duties there is one, pasta, which could hold more than one surprise for the US president, Donald Trump. Because, according to one of the main and popular Italian producers, Divella, on the market since 1890, even the highest duties could be absorbed without serious damage by companies, while star-spangled consumers would pay a very high cost, unless they stop eating pasta altogether. A cost that Coldiretti has also quantified, 170 million euros more for the pasta supply chain alone, while the entire agri-food sector with duties at 25% would weigh on the American consumer up to 2 billion euros.
Before giving the floor to the entrepreneur Vincent Divella, CEO of the company, some more numbers on the subject. According to the IPO data, International Pasta Organisation, in 2024 the per capita pasta consumption in the United States was approximately 8,8 kilograms per year (Italians consume 23), a growing demand, with an increase in turnover, in the first four months of '24, of more than 6,6%. Also in 2024, Italy exported pasta to the United States for a value of 805 million euros, representing 12% of the country's total agri-food exports to transatlantic countries.
Italy, as we know, is first in the world for production of pasta with 3,7 million tons, equal to 22,3% of the total. A primacy confirmed by the Italian leadership in the production of durum wheat, 3,8 million tons, or 12% of the world total, behind only Canada which produces 15%. Puglia, the region where the Divella pasta factory is located (300 million turnover, 320 employees), is the leading region for the production of durum wheat, 23,2% of the national total; followed by Campania with 19% and Emilia Romagna, with 18%. Overall, the pasta factories in the South, between Puglia, Campania and Sicily, are the largest in Italy, with an average turnover of 115 million.
Vincenzo Divella, how afraid are you of Trump's tariffs?
“We have seen how much damage the January announcements have done with the stock markets collapsing and the general alarm everywhere in the economic centers, a storm that ultimately forced President Trump to backtrack. I must say, however, that we pasta entrepreneurs are not too afraid of the duties. For two reasons: first of all, because of the nature of our product, which is inexpensive and very popular. I doubt that Americans (and in the world) will stop eating pasta. And secondly, even if the duties were at the maximum, 25% or even 30%, the increase in the end would only be a few cents. Not to mention that we have already taken the measures. In fact, while waiting for Trump's final decisions, we have reached an agreement with the American importer, dividing the weight of the 10% duty, taking on half of it each. In conclusion, it is not a huge damage for anyone, neither for us nor for consumers”.
It's a different story for other products in the Italian supply chain
“The situation is certainly more serious for the rest of the agri-food sector, such as sparkling wine, extra virgin olive oil, for which the risks are high because they are products richer than ours and because perhaps they can be replaced or eliminated. But I don't think that the fashion of Made in Italy for example will suffer too much, because those who wore Armani before will continue to do so, perhaps buying one less suit, but not eliminating the product altogether”.
How important is the American market for Divella?
“Not very much. We export mainly to Germany, which remains our largest market; then comes France. But think that we have made a breakthrough in Japan where they have even learned to eat pasta al dente while we are even leaders in South Africa. And now we have opened a new market, think about it, in Nepal. In short, 40% of our pasta, about 4 thousand quintals a day, goes abroad”.
I understand that there is no problem for you.
“On the contrary, there are indeed some. I didn’t mean to say that the situation isn’t worrying and that there aren’t any consequences to the American President’s policy. Because this path can lead to inflation and then to recession with factories that downsize, lay off workers or at the very least stop investing. But if I have to be honest, more than the duties at the moment I’m worried about the dollar. The monthly variation on the euro gives an increase of 2,38% and in the last year it has increased by 4,68%. This means that I pay less for that amount but what I export costs more and more. To stay with wheat, since the price of oil has fallen, the load of a ship today costs producers less than before and it becomes much more competitive to have it come from Canada or Australia. The conclusion is that Apulian wheat is losing ground in exports, while the import of Canadian wheat is increasing, having grown by 68% this year. The social consequences are strong and we have also seen them in recent days, with the revolt of associations such as Coldiretti who have organized a blitz at the port of Manfredonia with dinghies and motorboats against the arrival of wheat from Canada. And the duties in this case can do even more damage because the US-Canada conflict will push the latter country to push to export even more to other markets, including ours”.
Let's go back to Trump: how do you explain this way of doing things of the American president?
“I must also say that I do not consider Trump to be out of his mind, a madman, as many people think; on the contrary, I believe that he is making a fine argument, perhaps like a merchant, but one that makes sense. In short, just as in the bazaar they set a very high price (the sky-high duties we know about) and then lower it to the more moderate ones, he too is using this tactic. But at the end of the race he will still have brought into his coffers more than he had at the beginning of the negotiation. How can you call him crazy?”
Yet few have his cold blood…
“Let's be clear, I'm not saying it's good, I'm saying it makes sense. I also hope that America goes back to being what it was before, a beacon of democracy for the markets and for everything else. The greatest damage at this time is the ambiguity, companies don't know how to behave: do I invest or not invest? Do I produce more or less? And everything stops. And this means something very simple, that the future stops”.
