Il second quarter of 2024 revealed a Italian economic picture with shine e shadows, according to the latest analysis of Ref Searches. Istat confirmed a modest GDP growth of 0,2% compared to the previous quarter, which reflects a certain resilience despite the ongoing challenges. The has proved to be a major player, thanks to the decrease in trips abroad by Italians and the generous spending of foreigners, pushing the tourist balance to a historical record of almost 30 billion euros. While, theindustry and the housing sector face difficulties, with significant slowdowns, hold the services and construction. Despite the improvement in household disposable income, thanks to higher wages, falling inflation and employment growth, the consumers still remain cautious.
Industry in trouble
Despite overall growth, the industrial sector continues to suffer. The added value of themanufacturing industry fell 1% from the previous quarter and 1,2% on an annual basis. This negative trend has persisted since 2022, fueled by a prolonged energy crisis, a demand shift towards post-Covid services and the impact of price increases interest ratesThe industry's difficulties are amplified by the weakness in consumption of goods and from export slowdown, aggravated by the economic weakness of large European countries such as Germany.
La industrial production show contrasts significant: while the automotive and fashion systems (textiles and leather goods) are struggling, sectors such as paper, metallurgy and chemicals are recording a partial recovery, supported by the drop in production costs. The food and beverage industry has also held up well, supported by foreign demand.
Construction and services: a positive note
On the contrary, the construction continue to growing up, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters, with value added growth of 0,6% and 10,6% on an annual basis. However, the release of the generous Superbonus incentives could dampen future activity, although the continued progress of work already underway and of the PNRR projects will offer some support.
They also keep the services: added value increased by 0,4% compared to the previous quarter, with positive trends in trade, transport, accommodation and catering, stimulated by tourist flows. Information and communication services also saw positive performances.
Overall, business surveys do not signal any radical changes in the short term. Thebusiness mood manufacturing remains disappointing, while expectations for services are brighter. Construction firms, although past their peak, remain optimistic.
Prices and wages: a return to normality?
After a period of high inflation, signs of a “return to normality” are beginning to emerge. energy prices they are walking down, and this has led to a reduction in bills for families and businesses. The drop in energy prices has also contributed to an improvement in Italy's trade balance, with imports and exports approaching pre-Covid levels.
Inflation is slowing, with the rate falling to 1% year-on-year, although service prices continue to rise more slowly due to buoyant demand and rising wages. The very wages, after a period of stagnation, are starting to recover, with increases between 3% and 4%, although still far from recent inflationary peaks.
Labour demand and employment: a varied landscape
Labor demand continues to grow at a strong pace, with hours worked increasing by 1,6% compared to last year. However, growth inoccupation It may encounter limitations due to the reduction in the working-age population (15-64 years), particularly with the increase in the number of people in their XNUMXs leaving the labour market.
The occupation was supported by the permanent contracts and from self-employment, which has seen a recovery after a long period of stagnation. As a result, the increase in recent employment has rapidly reduced the number of unemployed, with a consequent decline in the unemployment rate. Despite the positive trend, the stabilization of labor supply and the reduction in the number of unemployed raise questions about the sustainability of this growth.
Families take a breather, but consumers remain cautious
In the 2024, the disposable income of Italian families is improving due to rising wages, falling inflation and rising employment. However, despite improving economic conditions, the consumers remain cautious. Household spending is slowing and confidence, while positive, has not yet prompted a significant shift in spending expectations. Many households continue to reduce savings or take on debt, signaling continued caution.
In the second quarter, the consumption they showed a modest growth 0,2% compared to the previous quarter and a contraction of 0,2% compared to last year. Services recovered (+1,3%), but consumer goods decreased, especially non-durable goods, while durable and semi-durable goods remained stable. Food spending contracted, with families struggling to cope with high prices.
Real estate investments slow down
- real estate investments, instead, have shown signs of slowdown. In the second quarter, gross fixed investments grew by only 0,3%, with a stagnation in construction investments (+0,1%) and a moderate recovery in investments in plant and machinery (+1,1%). The housing sector contracted by 1,1%, mainly due to the reduction in the tax benefits of the superbonus, which saw a drastic decline in its application. However, investments in non-residential buildings and in plant and machinery show signs of liveliness, thanks to the recovery of public investments and the push of the “Transition 5.0” Plan.
Exports slow, tourism grows
Le exports Italians are pulling the brakes, with a slowdown 1,5% compared to the previous quarter. Exports to the EU fell by 2,4%, while those to non-EU markets fell by 1,2%. The transport equipment and textile clothing sectors are in particular difficulty, while the chemical, pharmaceutical and food industries are recording better performances. Even the cheap imports they recorded a contraction, but less marked than exports, marking the fourth consecutive decline, mainly due to the weakness of the industrial cycle and the decrease in household consumption.
Il has instead benefited from the increase in tourism spending by foreigners. While foreigners have continued to spend generously, Italians have reduced trips abroad, leading the balance of tourist trips to a historical record of almost 30 billion of euros per year.
