What is meant by the concept of “paradox”? From dictionaries we get the following explanation: “A proposition formulated in apparent contradiction to common experience or to the elementary principles of logic, but which upon critical examination proves valid”. Among the many paradoxes of our time there is one that stands out for its apparent absurdity: the “migrants” paradox.Europe risks losing its democratic institutions and its civil garrisons due to the phenomenon of illegal immigration from the southern hemisphere of the planet but at the same time, without a constant, regular and growing flow, it will find itself – especially Italy – having to close factories and services due to lack of manpower.
Migrants, what “paradox” are we talking about?
And it won't just be about laborers employed to pick fruit and vegetables under the sun for many hours a day or of people employed in those tasks that the members of a "mass Lordship" no longer intend to carry out. The less qualified professions, in fact, remain the main employment for foreign workers.
If on average we have one foreign worker out of 10, in the unskilled personnel the value grows to 29,2%. Naturalized people find employment more easily in qualified and technical professions; but the component of the need for foreigners is also increasing, even in safe and qualified jobs, such as – for example – nursing staff and assistance to vulnerable people. The paradox, then, takes on the tone of tragedy if one considers that in 29 days, in the USA, a nation born from centuries of immigration from every corner of the earth, the leadership of the Western world will be played out largely on the issue of immigration.
But returning within the borders of the Old Continent and our Peninsula, even running the risk of trivializing a very complex issue, it is difficult to resign ourselves to the fact that a load of humanity willing to risk its life to reach our shores cannot be used to cover the holes that the low birth rate has created in our social fabric. It is clear that the numbers do not add up in immigration policies and laws.
Migrants, the demographic future of Europe
The picture of the future is extremely bleak. The Moressa Foundation, in the Annual Report presented in recent days, estimated that in the hypothesis of zero immigration until 2070 the elderly dependency ratio would grow to 77%, that is, there would be 77 elderly people for every 100 residents of working age. Today the ratio is at 38%. Maintaining the same employment level as in 2023, employed people would decrease by over 10 million, reaching 12 million workers. The estimate of pensioners would be equal to 13,8 million, significantly higher than workers; while the resident population would decrease from 2023 to 2070 to 39 million.
According to the Foundation, on a demographic level, Europe – like most Western countries – has long been in the fourth phase of the “demographic transition”, with low birth rate and low mortality, which results in a progressive aging of the population and a relative increase in the older component. Some scholars argue that many European countries would even be in a fifth phase, characterised by a further drop in births and, therefore, by a progressive decline in the population.
Italy is perhaps the most significant example of this situation, with less than 400 thousand births and an average number of children per woman of 1,24. The need for manpower (2024-2028) is also calculated at 800 thousand units in the PA and 3 million in the private sectors, of which 640 thousand foreigners (21,3%). Certainly, these forecasts should not be taken as gospel; but demography is closer than others to being considered an exact science because it reasons on already existing data and on statistical trends consolidated for decades.
Migrants, the numbers of the Flow decrees
As for the entries for work purposes envisaged by the Flow decrees (non-EU immigrants), their number is 576 thousand in the 2022-2025 time frame according to the steps reported below:
Flows Decree
2022 82.705 (+40.000) 68% seasonal
2023 136.000 61% seasonal
2024 151.000 59% seasonal
2025 165.000 57% seasonal
As is easy to understand, these are jobs that do not normally turn into stable employment.
The Leone Moressa Foundation in its reports also expands on the economic aspects of the presence of foreigners in the labor market. Foreigners employed. In Italy (2023) they were 2,4 million equal to 10,1%. But the data is greatly affected by the acquisition of citizenship (213.567 in 2023). The main methods of acquisition occurred through residency (almost 78 thousand) and transmission from parents (over 59 thousand). From 2011 to 2023, 1,8 million foreigners became Italian citizens. 18% of foreign citizens were born in Italy. If we consider Italians with foreign origins, the number of employed people rises to 12,9%. A citizenship reform could accelerate this process. According to the Report, the potential audience of the referendum recipients is over 2 million and the audience of the Ius Scholae is 135 thousand.
The growing data of foreign entrepreneurs is also interesting: 775.559 equal to 10,4% for this type of business: in the sectors of Construction (20,6%), Commerce (15,2%) and Hotels/restaurants (12,7%). 60% of the businesses are located in 5 regions (21,8% in Lombardy). In 9 regions the incidence is higher than 10%. In Trieste, Imperia and Milan above 15%. Prato at 26,3 percent.
From a tax point of view the post-Covid recovery marks an all-time high in the number of immigrant taxpayers (4,6 million). The fiscal balance of the immigrant population remains active, with taxes and contributions exceeding the welfare services dedicated to immigrants (+1,2 billion). In other words, immigrants are predominantly workers and active taxpayers, therefore, they pay taxes and contributions and have a low impact on public spending. It should also be recognized that the fiscal contribution, like the demographic one, represents a concrete positive contribution that is however not sufficient to stem the trends underway in our country. Demographic scenarios lead to a trend towards numerical parity between workers and pensioners, evidently unsustainable for today's system. According to the Report, therefore, immigration is a necessary but not sufficient condition to face the current demographic winter.
