There will be time to better scrutinize the economic policy of Kamala Harris and there is no doubt that the idea of lowering the cost of living with greater administrative controls on prices rather than with greater competition and full independence of Fed it raises eyebrows about monetary policy. But the principle of "Primum vive" also applies in politics and for democratic America and for the entire world the first thing that matters is to stop populist and destabilizing suggestions and prevent the return to the Presidency of the United States of Donald Trump. It is not at all certain that Harris will win the presidential elections on November 5 but it must be recognized that in just one month she has overturned expectations and reopened the games that before the withdrawal of Biden they seemed to pave the way for Trump's victory. This is why the results of the Democratic Convention in Chicago are pleasing to the public Bags which, also for this reason, ended a seesaw week on the rise.
But, obviously, there is a second reason that gave a boost to the markets on one of the most effervescent Fridays of these times and it is the highly anticipated speech of the President of the Fed, JErome Powell, at the traditional meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole. Powell said clearly that monetary policy must be adjusted and that rates will therefore fall, leaving open the possibility that the three envisaged cuts will lead to a reduction not of 0,75% but of 1%. But Powell did more and did not even mention the risks of recession, which professional owls like so much but which do not find the slightest confirmation in the most up-to-date economic data and also in the forecasts of many, although not all, banks of business.
Then there is France, the third reason that encourages the markets. Until the Olympics, which were a great success for Paris, many commentators thought that France was inevitably condemned to decline, that the President Emmanuel Macron had done everything wrong by anticipating the political elections and that the specter of ungovernability was haunting Paris. The facts are proving the opposite. In politics it is essential to take a long view and understand in advance what effects a move can have. This is what, in the incomprehension of most, Macron did: by dissolving the National Assembly early and promoting the republican alliance, he defeated Marine's far right The Pen which emerged from the July 7 ballots with broken bones. Then Macron meditated on the results of the elections and immediately understood that the only "large and stable" majority is the one based on the agreement between the Macronian centre, the Republicans and a good part of the new Popular Front. It is a complex operation, especially due to the maximalist excesses of the extreme wing of the Popular Front, but already on Tuesday, with the appointment of the new prime ministerial candidate, it will be understood whether France will finally see the light at the end of the tunnel and find the way back of governability with a distinctly democratic and pro-European imprint. As the markets hope.
