La ECB warns European politics against the effects of Green Deal. A green-only economy? It is not obvious that it is good, it can have negative impacts on the productivity of companies. The studio dedicated to the evolution of the Commission's strategy is controversial. Inside it is clearly written that climate impacts have different effects on countries and therefore we need to think before making choices of a certain type. All this was known, but the Bank clearly reiterates it now, just a few weeks before the elections for the new parliament. It was known and since the Green Deal began with a long series of measures, many measures have taken it into account. The transition to a more climate-friendly economy wants an organized approach to mitigate lasting costs on productivity adds the ECB. In essence, in each country there must be different assessments and policies depending on the scenarios that arise.
The determination with which Ursula von der Leyen defended its mother idea is, therefore, questioned by the most powerful European financial institution. The Bank's analysts studied six economies : Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Italy. In the short to medium term, in order to have environmental sustainability, companies will endure the increase in prices of production factors and they will be in trouble.
Politics at the center of everything
The discussion between those in favor and those against the green policy pursued in recent years by the Commission has then restarted. President von der Leyen is re-nominated for the European Parliament although the so-called Ursula majority will remain only in the history books. The Bank's judgment a few weeks after the vote looks a lot like a ruling on a Commission that is going home. “Transition policy formulation holds the potential to promote green innovation without replacing other stringent initiatives with climate regulations that could prevent emitting companies from increasing pollutant productivity.” The transition can erode job opportunities, “with a likely decline in new business initiatives within the affected sectors.” But there is a point that needs to be clarified here: the green job market is growing, new professions and trades are shaking up supply and demand for jobs all over the world. Should only Europe be afraid?
The severity of the structure led by Christine Lagarde objectively it gives support to sovereignist policies that are against a necessary transformation against climate change. The only support that comes out of the study is the long-term effects of the transition. Here a second point emerges that the ECB cannot fail to know. Some governments have framed the 2030 and 2050 objectives differently from the EU Commission. We want to measure the industrial capacity to emit less CO2? The ECB estimates that to combat emissions, productivity will fall by a third over five years. Yet there is public money to support businesses. There are programs from the ECB itself that help transform production by reducing environmental impacts. Saying that the green transition will produce results in the long term is like taking the wind out of the ship sailing the sea.
Industrialists from all over Europe queued in Brussels for money and protection. They presented very heavy dossiers, weakening certain beliefs hard of the Commission and were heard. Ursula von der Leyen is running again but has already said that her "her" Green Deal needs to be updated. You started by easing the measures for farmers rioting on tractors. The Bank's analysts did not perceive a sense of Realpolitik (also doubtful) of the president? Let's say it for future reference. If Ursula were to be re-elected she will certainly go to the ECB to discuss the study which, as a candidate and outgoing president, certainly did not inspire her.
