It seemed everything was ready: thethere was a political agreement, numbers too. And instead Friedrich Merz didn't make it. The leader of the CDU, who was supposed to lead the next German government supported by the Grand Coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, failed by six votes la confidence of the BundestagA minimal gap, but enough to derail a car that seemed already on the move.
Surprisingly, the session of the Federal Parliament, which was supposed to sanction the start of the new executive, ended in a surreal climate of uncertainty. With 310 votes in favor, 307 against and 3 abstentions, Merz missed the absolute majority required of 316 votesThe black-red coalition – CDU/CSU and SPD – had 328 seats on paper, twelve more than necessary. The failure of the first round of voting now opens a phase of parliamentary crisis with unpredictable outcomes.
A missed formality, what happened?
At 9:35 the call to vote ended in the chamber. Shortly after, the verdict: Merz is not chancellor. The data is as clear as it is surprising. Also in the presence of former chancellor Angela Merkel, the weakness of the new majority it materialized in the most delicate moment, despite weeks of rapid and seemingly effective negotiations.
The CDU and CSU had 208 seats each, to which were added the 120 of the SPD. A thin margin, certainly, but sufficient, at least in theory, to guarantee safe navigation. Instead, six votes were lost – out of dissent, political calculation or pure internal sabotage – and they have the birth of the new government has been stalled.
Germany without a government, what happens now?
What was supposed to be a simple formality turns into now in a crisis in the dark. According to Article 63 of the German Basic Law, the Bundestag now has 14 days to elect Merz – or another candidate – with an absolute majority. If no one will succeed, it will be there federal president to decide whether to appoint a minority chancellor or dissolve the chamber and call new elections. A nightmare scenario, in a context already marked by economic and political uncertainty.
The lack of trust comes as theGerman economy struggles to recover: after two consecutive years of mild recession, 2025 could also end with flat growth. The slowdown in exports, the downsizing of the automotive industry, delays in the electric transition and the impact of the new tariff war started by Donald Trump are just some of the burdens weighing on Berlin.
The German model shows signs of structural fatigue. In this scenario, the new coalition's promise to relaunch investments through the historic reform of the debt brake – already approved with the support of the Greens – represented the main lever for recovery. But swithout a legitimate government, that lever also risks remaining suspended.
A lightning deal that turned into a boomerang
Il failure of trust It is all the more sensational if one considers the speed with which CDU-CSU and SPD had Government agreement reached: just 45 days after the February 23 elections, with negotiations unusually fast by German standards. The constitutional reform for loosen the Schuldenbremse (debt brake) and theagreement on a balanced distribution of ministries they had led us to think of a newfound stability.
Instead, the Secret ballot revealed deep tensions and perhaps underestimated. The program presented by Merz, based on strong public investments, immigration restrictions and tax breaks for low-to-medium incomes, should have represented an acceptable compromise for both partners. But the result shows that, under the surface, something has already cracked.
AfD pressure and the ghost of the far right
To further complicate the picture, there is the growing strength of the far right di alternative for Germany (AfD), which at last elections has sfiorato 21% and now stands alongside the CDU in the polls. The long shadow of populism increasingly weighs on German politics.
