“The masks have fallen and now is the time to fight for core values.” With these words, the French president Emmanuel Macron has outlined its strategy in view of the upcoming ones legislative elections. With just 18 days to go until the vote, Macron unveils his plan to gain a "clear majority" for the remainder of his five-year term. However, the tenant of the Elysée may have underestimated the moves of his opponents, both a right that left, which they are weaving alliances “against nature” to challenge his centrist coalition, Together, at the Assemblée nationale.
But what role will Macron have in the electoral campaign? What steps is he willing to take towards the Republicans and the center-left? What if Rassemblement National were to win? First let's take a step back.
Threat on the right
The surprising alliance between the republicans (Lr) of Éric Ciotti and the Rassemblement National (Rn) of Marine Le Pen it is a real test for the centrist coalition. This convergence could strengthen the right-wing front, broadening their electoral base and taking votes away from Macron's camp. The announcement has sparked intense reactions even within his own party, with many neo-Gaullists opposing the idea of an alliance with the far right. However, Ciotti argues that joining forces with the RR is the only way to reinvigorate the right and counter Macron's "impotent majority", as well as partnership between the Socialist Party , France Insoumise by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Furthermore, Ciotti announced that, in the constituencies where the candidates of the traditional right will be ahead, the RR will not present any candidate of its own. This strategy could give an initial advantage to Ciotti himself, who will not have to face a candidate from the Rassemblement National in his constituency in Nice.
In the meantime, Marine Le Pen he decided to close the door on the party reconquest di Eric Zemmour, affiliated with the Melon Conservatories in the European Union. “There has been an inexplicable breakdown in negotiations,” said Marion Maréchal, Le Pen's niece who recently joined Reconquête. The far-right leader now considers Zemmour an obstacle on her path to power.
Threats on the left
Meanwhile, the left is also reorganizing itself. The new electoral sign, the Nouveau Front Populaire, brings together socialists, greens, communists and Insoumis (Jean-Luc Mélenchon's radical left). This coalition, inspired by pre-World War II left-wing unity, has the potential to win between 22% and 25% of the vote, a significant percentage that could influence the outcome of legislative elections. However, theexclusion of key figures such as Raphael Glucksmann and failure to agree on specific candidates raise questions about the cohesion and resilience of the alliance. The intellectual Raphaël Glucksmann, after having obtained 14% in the European elections, with a platform that united the socialist party and the Place Publique movement, announced his withdrawal from the discussions for the Popular Front, while the socialist party distanced itself from the his former candidate in the European elections to maintain his electoral support.
Macron's speech: here's what he said
“We can now see the difference between those who defend their own interests and those who defend the common ones”. Macron bluntly criticized the unnatural alliances between political extremes, denouncing the alliance of the Republican right with the far right and the left with the far left. He firmly hit out at the right of Le Pen and Bardella, accusing them of having promoted a climate of anti-Semitism during the election campaign. There was no lack of a direct attack on Ciotti's republicans, guilty, according to Macron, of betraying the legacy of the great leaders of the past such as De Gaulle, Chirac e Sarkozy. He condemned this alliance as a pact with the far right, stressing the importance of remaining faithful to the principles of the republican right. Macron criticized La France Insoumise for causing “constant disorder” and expressed concern about the lack of coherence in the action of the Assemblée Nationale, which hinders the formation of stable coalitions.
Macron called to rally those who say no to extremes, presenting himself as the leader of the central bloc and inviting us to build a common project. He also set out the objectives of his government, which include the protection of republican values, the fight against discrimination, the intensification of work and a rigorous economic policy. On the international scene, he criticized the ambiguity of the far right towards Russia and underlined the importance of political action based on federative projects and the gathering of moderate forces.
Elections in France: the scenarios
Emmanuel Macron, who had promised to return to the French people very quickly after his surprise decision to dissolve the National Assembly on the evening of the European elections, he now finds himself facing a difficult battle. Currently third in the polls, behind the right-wing bloc and the electoral cartel of the left, risks not obtaining the much-needed parliamentary majority. It would be another defeat, perhaps even more bitter than the previous ones. His success will depend on his ability to deal with the turbulent currents and counter his opponents' moves.
But what are the possible scenarios? One could lead to Le Pen's Rassemblement National winning a parliamentary majority, with Jordan Bardella as prime minister. In this case, Macron could choose to remain in power despite the defeat, as he has already declared, adopting a strategy aimed at "wearing down" Le Pen in view of the next presidential elections in 2027. However, a scenario could also arise in which no party reaches a clear majority, which could lead Macron to govern between unstable alliances (using Article 49.3 as he has already done in recent years), even if this would lead to a difficult and potentially conflictual political situation.
What if Le Pen wins? Will it follow the path of normalization as Giorgia Meloni did in Italy, or will it represent a threat to the whole of Europe? Meanwhile, political alliances crumble and reform, with each party trying to secure its own piece of power in the chaos. We are on the verge of an epochal political turning point, which could change the face of France and Europe.
