It is too early to draw conclusions on the French political crisis, but the last few hours suggest that the wind is finally changing in Paris. Two new developments, which obviously await verification in Parliament, are the premises for a possible turning point. The first is the appeal for a "difficult but necessary national reconciliation" launched by New Prime Minister-designate Francois Bayrou, who has always been a friend of the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron but he thinks with his own head, as also emerged yesterday in the heated confrontation between the two at the Elysée that then led to his nomination. An appeal that is not rhetorical but supported by the preventive renunciation of the controversial article 49.3 of the Constitution that in certain cases allows the Government to approve a law even without the favorable vote of Parliament and that is obviously seen as a thorn in the side of the opposition, both right and left. Precisely this openness of Bayrou, ultimately also endorsed by Macron who gave him the mandate of Prime Minister, has strengthened the second novelty of French politics, namely the availability of socialists (and also of the communists and the greens) not to exclude the "no distrust” to the new government in the making, despite the thunder and lightning of the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose maximalism has led him to isolation and with respect to which even Marine Le Pen she proved to be more flexible.
The political wind is changing in France: the key is the socialists' detachment from Mélenchon
This is the most important key to the French political situation: the expected disengagement of the socialists, communists and greens from Mélenchon, a disengagement that remains to be verified in Parliament and that does not include their entry into the Bayrou Government and that is temporary and linked to the programs and composition of the new Executive, but which is in fact. After all, Macron has appointed Bayrou precisely to defuse tensions and to start a dialogue with the socialists. We are not yet at the formation of a center-left government, which would be the only one with the numbers for a self-sufficient parliamentary majority but it can be a first step to give governability to France without exposing it to the continuous blackmail of the "parallel convergence of opposing populisms". We are at the first tests of a possible new course and the parliamentary approval of the budget will be the first test, far from simple, of the new Government. But if everything goes as it seems, it will also be necessary to review many of the prejudicial criticisms of President Macron who is finally getting closer to the "republican pact" invoked by the former prime minister. Gabriel Attal accepting with Bayrou the substantial passage from the presidential republic to the parliamentary republic. Between dream and reality, the latter usually wins, but this time the gap between the desirable and the possible could finally be narrowed. To the great relief of France but also ofEurope and, for those who know how to understand it, with an indisputable benefit also for theItaly who needs Europe like bread.
