No one denies that the new French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is a figure of great political and institutional importance and, as the President of the European Commission immediately declared Ursula von der Leyen, a politician who truly cares about theEurope having been not only a European Commissioner but also the EU's great negotiator on Brexit. Nothing to say therefore about the high profile of Barnier, a left-wing Gaullist and a republican of firm democratic faith.
Read Macron Appoints Barnier as Prime Minister
But the real political problems facing Barnier are three and they are as big as a house: what will his program be, what majority will he be able to gather and how much will the influence of the far right of Marine Le Pen weigh on his government?
On the first point we can only wait but from now on we can imagine that his Government will certainly be pro-European and pro-Ukraine, that on immigration it will be more restrictive than the previous ones and that it will defend the controversial pension reform, so dear to the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron who strongly wanted it despite the incomprehensible hostility of the left and the unions.
But the crucial point is more political than programmatic: will Barnier be able to have a majority in the National Assembly? On paper, no, because the whole Popular Front has announced his vote against and will take to the streets on Saturday against Macron's choice, which did not want to give space to the left. Therefore, Barnier can only count on the vote of the Republicans and macronians which are very far from the quorum. Barring surprises, for now unforeseeable, from the reasoning wing of the socialists.
This is why the real threat is the orientation of the extreme right of Le Pen, who initially called Barnier "a fossil" but, astutely, reserved the right to evaluate the programmatic speech that the new prime minister will make in Parliament. This means that The Pen does not exclude a priori not a vote in favor but an abstention that could give birth to the Barnier Government but with the shame of the indirect support of the far right that was defeated in the elections. In short, a nice puzzle that is far from being solved.
