Not to be pessimistic, but certainly the Trump's victory which leads the US towards a greater isolationism and Putin's previous aggression against Ukraine and NATO, put theEuropean Union in the awkward position of ending up like thesacrificial lamb on the altar of peace (or at least of a truce) between Washington and Moscow.
In the confusion caused by Trump's unexpected (at least in size) victory, many discordant voices are heard, above all hopes are confused with the crude analysis of the facts. To try to get a realistic idea of what can most likely happen, one must know distinguishing evidence from chatter. And on the basis of this realistic analysis, we can imagine some remedies to avoid the worst troubles.
Trump and Putin don't like a united Europe
First of all it is proven that Trump and Putin I agree on one point: neither of them like it united Europe. Both are against Brussels and do not look favourably on further steps towards the creation of a stronger central power. They would prefer a further recovery of sovereignty by individual states, a bit like what the various European sovereignists from Orban to Le Pen want.
Secondly, Trump has made it clear that the US is no longer willing to deal with the European defense and that if NATO is to be maintained, the Europeans will have to pay for it. Finally, there are the trade imbalances between the EU and the US , imbalances that mainly concern Germany and Italy which have a trade surplus of 80 and 40 billion respectively.
Putin, for his part, has only partly economic aims connected to the sale of his gas. His objective, explicitly stated several times, is to create a Eurasian Federation in which the Europeans put their wealth and Russia its military power based essentially on its nuclear arsenal.
The Role of Ukraine: Will Europe Pay the Price for “Peace”?
La definition of the war in Ukraine It can be the first step to restore a relationship coexistence between the US and Russia, perhaps to be weighed on other world chessboards such as China and India. If we consider that Trump believes that the United States does not need allies because its economy can go on alone, while American security is not at stake on the Ukrainian plains, then we can understand that sEurope will pay the price greater than the end of the war. An end that would reward the invader (which would retain its conquests of 2014-15 and from 2022, approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory) and would allow Putin to sing victory and perhaps would feel encouraged to rapidly extend its protectorate over small neighboring nations still trying to resist.
Without a central power of Brussels stronger, individual European countries would race to go to Trump to try to obtain less onerous conditions on duties which will have to be imposed, and depending on the inclinations of the national parties, by Putin to obtain Russian friendship. It is intuitive that the US and Russia will agree to make rich Europe pay a considerable price, forcing individual states to reduce welfare and tax their citizens to pay the old and new American and Russian masters.
Europe's mistakes
On the other hand, European countries are not entirely right. For too many years they have lived for free. under the American military umbrella, while they have proven incapable of contributing to the global economic balance, persisting in maintaining a export-based economy (mainly due to Germany) with huge trade surpluses that impoverished the rest of the world. In addition, they continued to peck at each other for trivial reasons and failed to take those decisive steps to build a unitary structure capable of speaking to the world with one voice.
Discussions are already beginning about the possibility for Prime Minister Meloni to act as a liaison between the two sides of the Atlantic and perhaps we will only waste more time in the illusion of being able to play a role that we cannot afford, avoiding making the real political and economic choices that would be necessary. For example, we are among the few countries that do not respect the commitment to increase defense spending to 2%. Meloni continues to say that this must not be done at the expense of the Italians. But how does she think she will be received in Washington if she does not comply with this request considered a priority by the Americans?
A true statesman emerges in decisive moments like the current one. If Meloni does not find the courage to tell Italians that for a few years we will no longer be able to afford certain things and that we will have to pay more taxes and work more, she will remain a modest politician who arrived at Palazzo Chigi more by luck than by value.
The US no longer wants to be the world's policemen
Trump's election has brought all the worries to a head knots of a tangled international situation because it has made it clear to everyone that the US no longer wants to be the world's policemen. New economic and political players are coming forward. Everyone in one way or another is trying to attack rich and weak EuropeWhat do we do?
Macron tries to say sensible things about the need to wake up, but he has little weight as a leader anymore. The Germans do not have a stable government. Orban is the emblem of the European leader who is now a winner: in fact, he is Putinist and Trumpian at the same time. And so is Le Pen or, in our country, Salvini. These are the men and women who declare themselves sovereigns but who are preparing to manage the partition of Europe between the two superpowers American and Russian.
Inevitable evolution? Maybe not. But for now there are no signs that suggest an imminent recovery of Europe, of leaders capable of telling their citizens that if they want to preserve freedom and a role in the world they must make some changes. economic and political sacrifices. If we choose to muddle through, sooner or later, contradicting Andreotti's famous joke, we will be destined to kick the bucket.
There is also hope of rescuing Europe and its project, and of reaffirming the continent together as an indispensable entity of the geopolitical scenario. There is a reserved and little-diffused plan that is being debated among experts and academics, which involves the massive repatriation of the European diaspora of Generation above all: a civic exercise more precisely centered in the Europeanist spirit that I would like to raise to this generation, still young and with the potential to procreate. The plan is centered in this demographic cohort due to its strong European convictions, in contrast with other older or younger generations.