The European political scene is in turmoil. THE leader of the 27 member states of the European Union they gather in Brussels for one informal dinner, fundamental for defining the key figures who will occupy the presidency of the Commission, the European Council, the Parliament and the role of High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Giorgia Melons, Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron e Olaf Scholz they are at the center of a complex power game, each with well-defined strategies and objectives.
Although the formal nomination will take place during the European Council at the end of the month, tonight's meeting is crucial in establishing consensus on the candidates. While the EPP supports the reconfirmation of the Maltese Robert Metsol for the Parliament, the former Portuguese prime minister António Costa, favorite for the European Council, faces an ongoing investigation into his former chief of staff. For the role of High Representative for Foreign Affairs, intended for the liberals, the Estonian prime minister is the candidate Kaja kallas, although some nations find it too critical of Russia.
Reaching an agreement today would allow von der Leyen to start working on the program and start negotiations with parliamentary delegations ahead of the vote scheduled for 18th July. But the game is complex.
Ursula von der Leyen's battle for the second term
Ursula von der Leyen, belonging to the European People's Party (EPP), is aware of the challenges that await it reconfirmed president of Commission European. It must overcome two important obstacles: obtaining a qualified majority from EU leaders and the favorable vote of at least 361 of the 720 MEPs in the European Parliament. The journey begins with an informal dinner this evening, followed by formalization in the European Council at the end of the month. The second crucial step will be the plenary vote in Strasbourg on July 18, where von der Leyen will need broad support.
I socialists they have set one condition: to avoid the inclusion of the ECR Conservatives, including Giorgia Meloni, and would instead like to start negotiations with the Greens. While I Popular they have an opposite approach: rejecting collaboration with the Greens and opening up to all or part of the ECR, including the Brothers of Italy (with 25 elected). The possible support of the Greens, who control 52 seats, could push the votes in favor of von der Leyen up to 458. However, the outcome of the secret vote is uncertain, with possible "snipers" in the European Parliament which could put I jeopardize the expected majority. And therefore every alliance is crucial. Von der Leyen tries to avoid surprises, considering that five years ago he lost around 80 votes due to snipers and the secret vote. This time, Melons could be the key ally to reach the necessary majority, although the EPP is the first group in Parliament and the socialists the second, both indispensable for success, and who have already widely expressed their dissent.
Which is why the tenant of Palazzo Berlaymont is managing the negotiations with her interlocutors separately. During the G7, she had an initial confidential exchange with Meloni, but she has yet to secure her full support. During the same summit, von der Leyen also met Macron e Scholz, a meeting that annoyed Melons, especially for the choice to hold the meeting in Borgo Egnazia, in Puglia, almost as if he were "plotting at home". The German chancellor added tension by defining Meloni as "at the far right of the political spectrum" and proposing a majority that includes popular, socialists and liberals. However, this coalition would only reach 406 votes.
Giorgia Meloni's aims at the top of Europe
Meloni finds himself in front of a crossroads: try to join the Ursula coalition, extracting important concessions, or opt for a sovereignist gamble, getting in the way and slowing down a quick agreement on von der Leyen.
An ideal scenario for Meloni would be to delay decisions on top jobs until after the French legislative elections, hoping for a victory for Marine Le Pen's Rassemblemant national that would further weaken Macron. In this case, the Italian prime minister could favor different solutions for the leadership of the Commission. However, if Macron were to prevail, Meloni could ask for a heavy portfolio in exchange for his support.
In addition to Roberto Fitto, discarded due to his reluctance to open a ministerial reshuffle, the hypothesis of Elisabetta Belloni, head of services and Sherpa of the G7, whose profile could fit the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, even if he is not among the first choices. The most coveted roles remain the economic ones, such as Competition and the Internal Market, currently occupied by representatives of Denmark and France. The objective for Meloni would be to guarantee a notable portfolio for Italy in the new Commission, possibly also an executive vice-presidency, although there is a need for a technical profile for roles such as Competition, yet to be designated.
Scholz, Sanchez and Macron: the anti-Meloni front
But the agreement between von der Leyen and Meloni is burdened by the shadow of France, Germany e Spain. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez - both members of the Socialist Party - together with the French President, Emmanuel Macron, despite being liberal, have expressed their clear opposition to any involvement of sovereignist forces in the future institutional structure of the EU. In short, von der Leyen must stop any dialogue with Giorgia Meloni and the ECR, and she must do so publicly, otherwise she risks losing their crucial support.
Considering that the designation of the President of the European Commission must be approved by a majority of the European Council, with a quorum of representative countries at least 65% of the EU population, the lack of support from Germany, France and Spain could completely erase von der Leyen's margins.
It is clear that France and Germany are motivated to conclude the issue without granting legitimacy to the far right: Macron faces Marine Le Pen as an internal enemy ahead of early elections, while Scholz faces the growing presence of AfD neo-Nazis. On the other hand, Italy seeks recognition for its right-wing coalition, trying to overcome the traditional "cordon sanitaire" against the far right in European institutions.
Meloni no longer has any excuses regarding the ratification of the ESM
In addition to the complex negotiations for key European Union appointments in the next legislature, Giorgia Meloni faces numerous crucial issues in her relationship with Brussels. One of these is certainly the European stability mechanism (Mes). With the vote concluded, the electoral campaign ends, eliminating any excuse for procrastinating ratify of the “Save States” reform. Thursday June 20th Will be held the board of the governors of the European stability mechanism, with a focus on priorities and the report on financial assistance instruments. There is no agenda item regarding Italy's missing ratification of the ESM, rejected by the Italian Parliament on December 21, but minister Giancarlo Giorgetti is expected to be asked questions in this regard. With Friday marking the passage of the six months needed before a rejected bill can be resubmitted to the Houses, the issue will be back on the table.
