THEEuropean Union is in full swing to start the negotiations di adhesion with theUkraine by the end of June, before theViktor Orbán's Hungary assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU (from 1 July). In this context, the European Commission has officially confirmed that both Ukraine and Moldova meet all the necessary requirements to advance in the accession process. Now it is up to Member States to lead the discussion on the next steps.
Pressure to speed up the accession proceedings for Kiev has increased recently, with ministers from 12 EU member states underlining the need to start the process by the end of June, before the handover in Budapest for the biannual guide of the EU institution. But because such a hurry? This tight timing is mainly dictated by concerns about how Viktor Orbán could influence the course of events once at the helm of the Union. Since his intransigence on sanctions against Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, Orbán - now the most faithful European ally of Vladimir Putin – has demonstrated a tendency to question EU policies. Recently, you have also suggested that Europe is preparing to go to war, raising even more questions about how your leadership might influence regional and global dynamics. In this context, the EU seeks to act quickly to ensure that Ukraine's accession process is not further slowed down or complicated by Orbán's political games.
Ukraine's hopes
Ukraine's hopes lie in the initiation of EU accession negotiations. Ukraine asked to join the EU soon after the 2022 Russian invasion, followed by Georgia and Moldova. In June 2022, the European Council accepted their candidacy, making the three countries the new membership aspirants. The EU Commission proposed to start negotiations with them in the 2023 EU Enlargement Package, approved by the leaders of the 27 member states in December of the same year. Now, the EU is just waiting to officially start negotiations, but this step has clashed several times with theobstructionist attitude of the Hungarian prime minister. Until the European Council on 14 December 2023: Orbán left the room at the time of the vote, allowing the other 26 EU leaders to give the green light to accession negotiations. At the subsequent summit in March, the Heads of State and Government called on the 27 European Affairs Ministers to “swiftly adopt” the draft negotiating frameworks and “take the work forward without delay”.
The issues open to Ukraine's accession to the EU
The concerns are not limited to the political front. To join the EU, Ukraine must complete a series of steps judicial reforms, constitutional ed economic for adapt to European regulations, with particular attention to the protection of national and linguistic minorities, a relevant issue for Orbán. The EU, in collaboration with the Belgian Presidency in office until the end of June, and Ukraine have worked intensively with Budapest to address concerns related to Hungarian minorities in Ukraine, including by responding to an 11-point list presented by Hungary. In addition, the accession of Ukraine raises economic concerns: Its low GDP per capita could destabilize the Union, converting some net beneficiaries into net contributors. Experts estimate that Ukraine's membership could cost between 110 and 136 billion euros on the EU's seven-year budget.
It is hoped that the Orbán government can resolve issues related to Ukraine's accession talks before Hungary takes over the six-month presidency, thus avoiding a potential blockade of the accession process for the next six months. But before proceeding, it is essential that the 27 governments agree on the negotiating framework proposed by the European Commission. Only with the green light to this framework will it be possible to start the project first intergovernmental conference, perhaps as early as June 25 during the next General Affairs Council, tasked with deciding unanimously on the start of talks with the candidate countries.
Bonino against Orbán: blocking the rotating presidency of Hungary
In this context, Emma bonino, leader of +Europa, in a letter addressed to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and to Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, suggested postpone the Hungarian presidency. According to Bonino, the EU Council, which makes crucial decisions for the future of the Union, should not be led by a leader who has called his country an "illiberal democracy" and who is under surveillance proceedings for violations of the rule of law.
Bonino suggests that many decisions of the EU Council must be taken unanimously, but there is an exception that can be exploited: the succession of countries to the presidency of the Council of the Union can be modified by qualified majority. Proposes to postpone the Hungarian presidency until the ongoing surveillance procedure against Hungary is successfully resolved. This, according to the leader of +Europa, would not be a sanction, but a self-defense measure by the Union to protect its fundamental values.
Bonino also sees another opportunity: if the presidency were entrusted to Poland by Donald Tusk, would send a strong message to all members and candidate countries on the importance of respecting the rule of law as a prerequisite for participating in the Union, benefiting from the single market and European funding.
Tajani responded by clarifying that Italy cannot interfere with the legitimately elected government of another member state, underlining that depriving Hungary of the presidency would be a violation of EU rules. However, he acknowledged concerns about Orbán's choices.
In a Europe suspended between integration ambitions and geopolitical challenges, Ukraine's entry into the EU is being played out on the edge of Orbán's political maneuvers, while time is ticking inexorably towards the Hungarian presidency.
