Over the past few months, the downside risks for the global economy have intensified "in a context of threat and effective increase in trade tariffs by the United States and possible retaliation by the countries concerned". It is what the detects ECB in the economic bulletin released this morning. “Overall – reads the document – if all the announced measures are implemented, the average level of trade tariffs imposed by the United States would reach values never seen in the last 50 years. Such developments constitute a serious risk to the outlook for global business and trade in the short and medium term". The ECB recalls how the first wave of duties imposed by the United States on imports from China came into effect on 6 July and, "further measures are planned for the future".
“As a result – continues the bulletin – the Chinese authorities have announced retaliation. At the same time, countermeasures were implemented by the European Union and Canada in response to tariffs previously imposed on steel and aluminium. The US government has also launched a new investigation into the importation of passenger cars and spare parts which, should it lead to the implementation of protectionist measures, could have repercussions in particular on Canada, Japan, Mexico and South Korea, as well as on the main economies of the European Union. The complexity of supply chains could further amplify the adverse effects of protectionism on the world economy”.
