The cryptocurrency market can't wait for Donald Trump to enter the White House on January 20 and fulfill the promises he made during his election campaign regarding the deregulation of the sector and various facilitations. In the meantime, not only Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has moved, but all the others are moving too. But even the student is surpassing the master: ether, which has always been in the shadow of bitcoin, is now surpassing it in terms of capitalization.
Experts see a strong 2025, after a 2024 recorded by the sector as a historic year for Bitcoin also from a political point of view, with more and more nations and institutions who have recognized its role as reserve of value and safe haven against the depreciation of fiat currencies (which are based on the performance of a country) and economic uncertainty.
“If 2024 was an extremely positive year, in 2025 we will witness some key events for the world of cryptocurrencies, which will not only concern Bitcoin” say analysts at 21Shares, a leader in the sector, with over 40% market share in Europe as an issuer of crypto ETPs.
It is recalled that in Italy, if no changes are made to the bill which provides for an increase in the'crypto-capital gains tax rate', it will go from 26% to 42%.
Ethereum Exploit Surpasses Bitcoin
The derivatives market of Ethereum is on fire. According to CoinGlass, open interest in Eth perpetual and standard futures has hit an all-time high of 6,32 million Eth, worth over $27 billion, up 17% since the beginning of the month. From 1 November, ether even has surpassed bitcoin, up 47,5% versus BTC's 38,5%. All this derivatives activity and growing user engagement with decentralized finance (DeFi) suggests that ether could return to its all-time highs.
Ethereum is expected to recover in 2025. According to experts, unlike what was seen with Bitcoin, 2024 was not an easy year for Ethereum, which recorded significant outflows in favor of Layer1 solutions such as Solana and Sui, and saw a strong reduction in fees due to the affirmation of Layer2 chains.
This has left the Ethereum blockchain looking underutilized compared to its potential. The huge demand for data storage and analysis solutions and the affordable costs that have been created could trigger a growth of more than 100% of the network. Ethereum could also benefit from the emergence of numerous Layer 2s specific to a single sector, which could send users back to the primary chain, instead of diverting them as has happened in recent months.
Countries that are focusing on cryptocurrencies
Some countries, in an attempt to escape from severe economic crises, are looking to cryptocurrency to fulfill their desires for revenge. Some governments have begun to develop regulations that are increasingly favorable to this cryptocurrency: Bhutan for example, which has earned about 800 million dollars from Btc mining (the process by which new Bitcoins are put into circulation) powered by hydroelectric energy.
But the most interesting case is that of Argentina, which wants to adopt Bitcoin as a national reserve of value. In fact, Buenos Aires has said it wants to promote a budget for 2025 that does not include further debt and the collaboration that the President Milei has already started with the President of El Salvador it would be a first sign at least of a greater adoption by the former.
But even in the United States the possibility of a similar event has grown, also in light of the fact that today the Department of Justice holds 208 thousand units of confiscated BTC, for a value of around 14 billion dollars.
Solana heads for new capitalization records: wins for speed and low prices
According to analysts, one of the market players that has eroded the most market share from Ethereum has been Solana, with net inflows of $1,2 billion and $2 billion in direct transfers from the former to the latter. The extremely positive performance that this cryptocurrency has recorded in 2024 has determined a market deviation noteworthy, and while most of the volumes come from memecoins (cryptocurrency coins and tokens that combine pop culture and digital investments), Solana still remains a clear winner in attracting new users and winning capital from other networks, thanks in large part to the execution speed and commissions on transactions very contained.
“That’s why, although we don’t believe there will be an overtaking yet, we believe this trend will continue in 2025 and that this digital currency will continue to gain market share from Ethereum,” say experts at 21Shares.
Supporting this growth is the increasingly important role that Solana is having in traditional finance, which now seems to have laid the foundations for the launch of TraFi products also on this digital asset, such as ETFs listed in the United States. Although theapproval of this instrument may not occur in 2025, the probability is expected to increase as we approach the end of the year and the first half of 2026.
The historic decision of the SEC, followed by others
On January 10 of this year, the SEC made a historic decision, approving the listing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. In just a few months, these ETFs have been able to attract over 20 billion dollars of investments, setting the record for the most successful launch in history. Subsequently, theSpot ETFs on Eth, while the UK has approved the listing for institutional investors only of Etn on Btc and Eth and Hong Kong has listed 6 ETFs on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Last October, assets under management in cryptocurrency exchange traded products (ETPs) stood at around $100 billion, 21Shares says, and while 80% of demand still comes from retail investors, interest in institutional players are growing rapidly. “Looking ahead to 2025, we know that the annual due diligence will be reviewed in January and this will most likely lead to the removal of certain constraints that have prevented certain stakeholders from investing in crypto through available products and further accelerating their adoption,” the analysts say. “Considering these factors and that the approval of Bitcoin options will further increase market liquidity, we expect that next year the total assets under management of ETPs could reach $150 billion, with at least one of the ETFs listed in the US in the top 25 of the largest ETFs in the world.”
