The video shot by has gone around the world Evo Morales, and posted on his social profiles on Sunday 27 October, where he was joined by firearm shots while he was on board a car. Unharmed, former Bolivian president he cried out about a conspiracy to assassinate him, which he said was hatched by his former ally, former minister of his governments (from 2006 to 2019) and current president Luis Arce.
Bolivia on the brink of civil war
The episode is only the latest act of a tension that has been going on for years, since 2019 when Morales first tried to to force the Constitution running for a fourth consecutive term, then following accusations of electoral fraud he was forced into exile, which he found in Argentina under the presidency of Alberto Fernandez, thus leaving the field to Arce. Returning to Bolivia, the first indigenous president in the history of the country immediately agitated his supporters, still numerous especially in the peasant class, claiming to run for office in 2025 although he faces very serious accusations of sexual abuse. The government, for its part, has rejected the accusations of an attack, maintaining that the shooting was actually triggered by Morales' convoy, which had first opened fire on police forces engaged in an anti-drug operation.
Even before this episode, however, there was a feeling of unease in the country. a climate of civil war, with street protests by supporters of the former president and clashes with the police that have led from mid-October to today to dozens of arrests and injuries, and which culminated in recent days with the kidnapping of 200 soldiers, by pro-Evo protesters.
Morales went on hunger strike in protest asking for an immediate meeting with President Arce and above all an end to the repression against his militants and the judicial persecution that he says is being carried out against him. The 65-year-old socialist categorically denies having sexually abused some minors during the period in which he was in political asylum in Argentina, but just a few days ago the government of Buenos Aires took action directly, with the Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich who formally presented complaint against him. A clear signal that with Javier Milei the relationship has changed: His predecessor Fernandez, a socialist like Evo, had denied Bolivia the extradition of the indigenous leader who was then accused of terrorism; today, however, Argentina itself is asking for him to be tried.
The economic situation is worrying
In this context, the economic situation is of particular concern. Rich in raw materials, especially the highly sought-after Lithium, during the Morales era Bolivia had found the path to growth through public investments, fixed exchange rates, energy and frozen food prices, while today it is sinking into a crisis that is inexorably leading it on the path to aa dramatic monetary devaluation. The Central Bank has almost run out of dollar reserves, which it builds up month after month by holding on to thenatural gas export towards Brazil and Argentina, but the boom of this commodity has long since ended and in the meantime the country has unfortunately neglected the lithium road, of which it has the largest reserves in the world and which instead would be a strategic asset in times of energy transition.
The result is that the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of just 1,6% this year, the weakest in two decades (excluding the first year of the pandemic), while inflation, contained during Morales' mandates, is today among the highest in Latin America. In this climate of rising cost of living and strong social tensions, the government is powerless because Morales' movement still has the majority in Parliament and the former president does not like the reforms proposed by Arce, considered too liberal.
Bolivia between elections and entry into BRICS
La Bolivia to return to the polls in 2025 but above all, starting from January 1st, it will become part of the Brics, an alliance that is now openly anti-Western, which countries such as Iran, Belarus, Cuba, Indonesia, Turkey, and perhaps Venezuela have joined or are about to join.
The entry of La Paz was strongly desired by the Russian president Vladimir Putin, which has in Luis Arce its most faithful ally in the American continent. It is no coincidence that the Bolivian president was the guest of honor at the last International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, the Russian Davos, held last June. The feeling is that Moscow's hand is behind the coup-like climate in Bolivia, which is hungry for the critical raw materials of which the Andean country has an enormous and still unexplored availability.
