2023 will be remembered by Italian banks as the year of records. In fact, in the first nine months of this year, according to data from Value Partners, the profits of the top five banks Italians increased by 77%, reaching almost 16 billion euros. And in the whole of 2023, adds Fabi, the overall profits of all Italian banks will exceed the 40 billion euros.
Banks: profits increased by 77% in the first 9 months of 2023
Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Bper, Banco Bpm and Mps. They are the 5 largest Italian banks and from January to September they saw their profits increase by 77% compared to the same period a year ago. In numbers, profits grew from 8,9 billion to 15,8 billion of Euro. A record result due to two main factors: the 57% increase (+10 billion) in the interest margin due to the increase ininterest rates by the ECB and the halving of credit adjustments, which fell from 4,4 to 2,2 billion. This is the analysis that comes from Value Partners, according to which "the positive period continues for the main Italian banks under the banner of interest rate dynamics, the effect of which is however destined to stabilize in light of the potential exhaustion of the ECB's restrictive policies ”
The higher rates, however, states Marco De Bellis, partner of Value Partners, "determine a negative impact on families and businesses and translate into a new decline in loans".
The profit ranking: Unicredit is in the lead
Even taken individually, the top five Italian banking groups recorded record profits: they are at the top of the ranking Unicredit with 6,7 billion profits in the 9 months and an increase of 68%. Follows closely Intesa Sanpaolo which obtained profits of 6,1 billion, an increase of 85% compared to the same period in 2022. Third Bper, with profits of 1,1, a number which however represents a decrease of 26% also due to the negative goodwill for Carige. Fourth and fifth place for Bpm bank (943 million, +94%) e Ps, which from January to September recorded profits of 929 million compared to a loss of 334 in the first nine months of last year.
Fabi: “In 2023 the banks will exceed 40 billion in profits”
And if the Value Partners data were not enough to demonstrate the progress made by the banks, the forecasts also arrive Fabi, Autonomous Italian Banking Federation, according to which Italian banks - all together this time "are moving towards total profits exceed 40 billion euros", in 2023. "The brilliant results achieved in the first three quarters of the year, compared with those of the previous 12 months, allow us to estimate, in projection, that the profits of the banking sector of our country will be, overall, around 43 billion and 431 million”, underlines Fabi.
Compared to 2022, when the banks made 25,4 billion in profits, “the result would be higher by 17,2 billion (+70%)", states the Federation which then highlights how the result would have almost tripled compared to the previous five years: "in 2021 profits stood at 16,4 billion, in 2019 at 15,7 billion and in 2018 at 15,1 billion; in 2020, due to the Covid pandemic, the overall result was only 2 billion".
“2023, therefore, will be remembered as a golden year for the profits of Italian banks and already in the first nine months of the year, which brought 15,7 billion in profits to the top five groups, precise and extremely positive indications emerge on the ability to generate profits and be profitable. The decisions of the European Central Bank are undoubtedly favoring the growth of profits. If in recent years the interest rate context had not supported the banks' numbers, especially with reference to traditional activities, in fact, the same cannot be said for the current year and, in part, for 2022", concludes Fabi.
Tax on extra profits replaced by 4,2 billion in reserve provisions
One of the elements that attracted the most attention in 2023 was the introduction of the so-called tax on extra profits. For the moment, the vast majority of groups have decided not to pay it, opting instead forreserve allocation non-distributable equal to 2,5 times the theoretical amount of the tax levy. An option provided for by the law passed by the Melons Executive.
Numbers in hand, Fabi calculates, if only the top five groups are taken into consideration, this choice translates into a share of 4,2 billion euros for 2023. Fabi calculates. Extending the count to 10 banks, we arrive at a loss of revenue for the State amounting to 2 billion.
The union recalls that the choice "is an option explicitly provided for by an amendment to Legislative Decree 104 of 2023 which pushed the country's banks to strengthen their assets, thus avoiding the payment of the extraordinary tax. A path thanks to which the banks have probably anticipated capital strengthening which, in the future, in light of the probable deterioration of credit, could be suggested or imposed by the supervisory and supervisory authorities".
