Secondo Bankitalia, GDP of our country will increase by 0,5% in 2024 and will accelerate in the next three years, rates around the1 percent on average, driven by the recovery in consumption and exports. The investments will be slowed down from the downsizing of the residential building incentives but will benefit from the implementation of projects linked to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and the gradual reduction of financing costs. This is what emerges from the Macroeconomic projections for Italy in the four-year period 2024-27 developed by the experts of Via Nazionale as part of the coordinated exercise of the Eurosystem.
Bankitalia cuts Italy's 2024 GDP: growth projections
Le growth projections elaborated by Bankitalia are formulated on data corrected for the effect of the different number of working days between one year and the next, unlike those elaborated by the Ministry of Economy and Finance and published in the Medium-Term Budget Structural Plan (PSB) published last September 27. To compare the estimates of Palazzo Koch with those of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, it is therefore necessary to refer to the estimates not corrected for the effect of the different number of working days. The GDP growth estimate for 2024 that excludes this effect is 0,7 percent. (1,0 in the PSB framework).
Bankitalia, inflation estimates
But still: Bankitalia estimates "that theinflation remain contained, placing itself at the1,1 percent on average for the current year, All '1,5 in the next two years and 2 percent in 2027“. The macroeconomic forecasts within the Eurosystem's coordinated exercise state that “the main contributors to the rise in inflation would be the disappearance of the strong negative contribution of the energy component and, in 2027, the temporary effects of the entry into force of the ETS2 regulation”.
Core inflation “would average just above 2 percent this year and fall to just above 1,5 percent over the next three years.”
Bankitalia, how much will the duties weigh?
The possible “protectionist policies” coming make “high uncertainty” of the forecasts, writes Bankitalia in the macroeconomic projections for Italy in the four-year period 2024-27. Via Nazionale also cites “the ongoing tensions connected to the ongoing conflicts that could negatively impact sales abroad and, through a worsening of the confidence of families and businesses, on domestic demand. A higher price dynamics could result from new increases in the prices of raw materials and other imported goods”. “On the other hand, the possibility of a more marked and lasting deterioration in demand could weigh on employment and compress the trend of wages, profit margins and sales prices of companies”, the text underlines.
Bankitalia, consumption supported by rate cuts
"I consumption, after the sharp fall recorded at the end of 2023, have started to increase again since the first quarter of the current year and would continue to grow in the next three years", it continues. In support of the recovery in consumption, via Nazionale cites "the good performance of household purchasing power and the reduction in interest rates. Investments would slow down, feeling the effects of the reduction in incentives for home redevelopment, which would only be partially mitigated by the increase in spending on infrastructure and the incentive measures provided for in the PNRR”.
