In fourth quarter of the 2024, Bankitalia analyzed the health status of the Italian companies, outlining a complex picture, but not without signs of hope for the future. The survey, which involved Italian companies with at least 50 employees operating in the industrial and non-financial services sectors, highlights a picture of uncertainty, but also of resilience. Italian companies are in fact facing a slowdown in demand, especially foreign ones, and a general caution regarding investments, but they continue to look at the 2025 with a moderate optimism.
The general economic situation: a widespread deterioration
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the general economic situation in Italy it is worsened, with an increase in negative ratings among companies, which went from 21% to 30%. This worsening affected all sectors, but in particular theindustry and services, where the difficulties became more evident. The percentage of companies that recorded an improvement in the situation remained substantially stable, going from 6% to 5%.
THEeconomic-political uncertainty continues to be a major concern for businesses. In particular, exporting companies are concerned about the evolution of international trade policies. In addition, concerns about the trend in commodity prices, especially energy prices, remain a hot topic, although less incisive than concerns about the general economic situation.
Demand and sales: further weakening
La question overall is further weakened, especially that Esther. THE overseas sales, particularly in the industrial sector, have recorded a flexion significant. The balance between companies that saw an increase and those that saw a decrease in sales fell to -11 percentage points, compared to -5% in the previous quarter. This reflects a weakness in international demand, partly linked to the difficult global economic situation.
Even in the services demand has slowed, with the balance between increases and decreases in sales standing at -2 percentage points. However, the sector construction showed an opposite trend: demand actually increased from 19 to 23 percentage points, supported above all by companies in the residential sector.
Employment: Stable with some optimism
On the front occupational, Italian companies seem to be aiming for the stability. About 70% of companies do not expect any changes in their workforce over the next three months. However, 23% of companies in the construction sector expect to expand their workforce, compared to 11% in services and 3% in manufacturing. Employment forecasts are more favorable for larger companies, which are often better able to cope with economic difficulties.
Wages: Moderate increases ahead
As regards the wages, approximately 65% of companies plan to increase nominal hourly wages of their employees in the next 12 months. The expected increases are mostly small, but still above 4% for a significant percentage of companies. In detail, 10% of industrial companies expect increases above 4%, a percentage that rises to 15% in the construction sector and 17% in services. These increases are generally smaller than in previous periods, but still necessary to cope with the increase in labor costs.
Investments: Moderate but steady growth
Despite the unfavorable judgments on the general conditions for investing, the forecasts on investments I am moderately positive. The balance between firms expecting an increase in investment and those expecting a decrease is positive across all sectors, with a wider gap in services and construction (around 20 percentage points) than in industry excluding construction (4 percentage points). Although economic conditions remain difficult, many firms still seem willing to invest, especially in the most dynamic areas such as construction.
Prices and inflation: stability in sight, but with attention to costs
I selling prices recorded modest increases in the fourth quarter. In services, the increase was 2,1%, slightly down on the previous quarter (2,2%). In industry, the price increase was 1,4% (from 1,2% in the third quarter). construction, on the other hand, have seen a slowdown in increases, but the rate of price growth (3,3%) is still higher than that of other sectors, although down from 4,4% in the previous quarter. Expectations for the next 12 months indicate stability in price dynamics in all sectors, with increases expected of 1,5% in industry, 2,1% in services and 3,3% in construction.
Inflation: A slowdown in expectations
Le inflation expectations have fallen compared to previous surveys. In the fourth quarter of 2024, companies expect an average inflation of 1,4% in the next six months, against the 1,7% forecast in the previous quarter. One- and two-year expectations stand at 1,5%, with a homogeneous forecast across the various sectors and geographical areas of the country.
Expectations for 2025: A Year of Moderate Hope
Le Expectations for the first quarter of 2025 I am more cautious, but not entirely negative. Just under half of the companies in the industrial and construction sectors expect sales to remain stable. In particular, 43% of companies in the construction sector expect growth, also thanks to the measures related to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). Specifically, 56% of service companies expect demand to remain unchanged, and 30% expect a slight expansion.
The forecasts on the operating conditions are less favorable, with a negative balance between expectations of improvement and deterioration. In industry excluding construction, the balance falls to -16 percentage points, while in services it is -5 points. In the construction sector, the outlook has also become less favorable, although the balance remains positive (2 percentage points).