In Piazza Meda the nervousness is in the air. Giuseppe Castagna, taken aback by Andrea Orcel's move, is thinking of everything to try to stop the Unicredit's takeover bid proposal on his Bpm bank. On the one hand, yesterday it put the employees of the institute with a letter that predicts stellar redundancies. On the other hand, he is thinking of calling a'extraordinary meeting of shareholders. Agenda: the proposal to relaunch the offer on Anima, or propose a merger with Bmps, both to close the operation with the asset management company as soon as possible, and as a defensive move.
In addition to the surprise and the plans gone awry of Castagna, who was actually thinking of building that famous third banking hub, as also wanted by the Italian government, it is the price proposed by Orcel not to be liked at all: the 0,75% premium was branded as downright offensive by Piazza Meda.
A relaunch on Anima is possible in the agenda of the extraordinary meeting
But, while we wait for a possible relaunch by Orcel, lawyers and advisors are studying every possible countermeasure to take. One way forward could be to act on Anima: Banco Bpm had launched the takeover bid on the asset management company at a price of 6,20 euros per share with a premium of 8,5%. The purpose of theextraordinary meeting It could be to ask the members for the ok to raise the offer price, even if the absence of changes to the takeover bid on Anima is one of the conditions for the effectiveness of Unicredit's takeover bid.
But the lawyers are thinking of putting other points on the agenda of the hypothetical extraordinary meeting, according to sources close to the dossier, reported by MF. For example, they are thinking about some changes to the Bpm perimeter such as transfers of real estate or shares, and the distribution of a special dividend. There are even those who do not rule out a friendly merger with MPS, which however is considered very difficult.
Castagna's letter: Dear 20.000 employees, 6000 of you are risking your job
Yesterday Castagna returned to write to the 20 thousand employees of Banco Bpm. He had done so on November 14, celebrating "three particularly significant moments for our growth and consolidation path": the accounts, the takeover bid on Anima Sgr and the entry into Mps at 5%. But now the tone is of a completely different nature. "A few days after my previous letter, I feel I must return to you to comment on the recent news, which you are certainly already aware of" begins the banker citing the blitz of 10 billion in shares with which Unicredit wants to buy the bank, and delist it by June. Castagna confirmed the estimate on the repercussions of the 900 million synergies from the cost announced by Unicredit. And then the ace of terror comes in: this could translate into over 6.000 releases", causing many observers to be perplexed about these numbers. And then he repeats his mantra: "We are a large autonomous bank, Italian with a strong vocation of closeness to the territories and to the SMEs, the backbone of the country. We must continue in this direction, in the path we have traced and continuing to do our job well, as always. This is the right path for grow up alone".
Meanwhile, Unicredit receives praise from Moodys
Orcel meanwhile is silent, waiting for the dust to settle. In the meantime I happily cash in on the Positive rating from Moody's on the operation. After having confirmed the group ratings, the US agency said that if the takeover bid were to be successful, the credit rating would remain stable, in addition to the fact that "the acquisition of Banco Bpm would not prevent the potential Acquisition of Commerzbank by UniCredit”, which will be discussed around mid-2025. Moody's even says that, if the thrust in Germany is successful, it will “consider the possibility of having UniCredit's stand-alone rating, now Baa3, upgraded to Baa2, one notch above Italy's sovereign rating”, and also pushing up the bank's senior non-preferred and junior debt.
Amundi holds a 3% stake in Unicredit
Even Credit Agricole, the largest shareholder of Banco BPM, is watching. The French bank also controls Amundi, the largest European fund management company, which in turn announced that it holds a 1,3% stake in Unicredit on behalf of its clients., reports Reuters. “The shareholding is held on behalf of Amundi’s clients and is entirely consistent with Amundi’s usual business,” the company said. Amundi is UniCredit’s fund management partner, having bought Pioneer, the Italian bank’s fund division, in 2017. Italy had sought to keep Pioneer in Italian hands at the time, but Amundi outbid a consortium of domestic investors. Amundi has a distribution agreement with UniCredit until 2027.
Credit Agricole, which already has in Italy Cariparma and Friuladria, could also consider it convenient to adhere to the Unicredit offer and return to the field with a dowry of branches and customers to manage directly. Or evaluate countermoves to further ignite the Italian banking risk. Not to forget the consumer credit of Agos Ducato, 60% of Agricole and 40% of Banco Bpm.
