A French shield, that of the Crédit Agricole, which this morning on the stock exchange brings the Bpm bank to travel at a good pace. But really last Friday's move – that is, to rise to 15,1% of the capital of the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna with the announcement of wanting to ask the ECB the permission to grow up to 19,9 percent – will allow the “banque verte” to negotiate at the table where the fate of Banco Bpm is being played out in a stronger position? This is what some financial analysts say, according to whom Agricole's interest is protect and possibly expand their own distribution agreements rather than block Unicredit's offer, which will however need a relaunch.
Banco Bpm, what Crédit Agricole analysts think
The French have "significant power in any potential decision" of Banco Bpm as well as "in the success of Unicredit's offer", write the Intesa Sanpaolo analysts. Their share represents “an important bargaining chip”, in exchange for which Unicredit “can offer the extension of the distribution agreement with Amundi, overlapping branches, certain distribution agreements in Italy and the option to expand its distribution network in Germany if the Commerzbank deal is finalized.”
Banco Bpm, Unicredit's chances of success
“In this case, the chances of success of Unicredit’s offer”, which “in any case requires a price increase”, “could increase while the chances of a defensive move by Banco Bpm on Mps decrease”. If, on the other hand, it were to side with Banco Bpm’s autonomy, “Credit Agricole could maintain its current partnerships and play a role in any future corporate action by Banco Bpm, earning some credit with the government. In that case, the success of Unicredit’s offer would be at risk”.
Unicredit-Agricole, what are the common ground?
Also for Equity the rise in the capital of the Bank "strengthens the negotiating position" of the French who can "better defend their partnerships/product factories" with both Banco Bpm and Unicredit "as well as increasing their relevance" in the assemblies "in a context of passivity rule". Unicredit and Agricole they might find “a meeting point" in the "excess branch management” and “in the renewal and maintenance of distribution contracts” while a counter-offer is deemed “highly unlikely”, “also for political reasons that make an operation of this type difficult to implement” and in light of the “collaborative and constructive approach” that the French have always had “with stakeholders and the government” and that they might consider “important to preserve”.
Even according to Mediobanca Credit Agricole's interest is "to improve its negotiating position to ensure the continued distribution of its products" rather than "attempting to act as a consolidator themselves".
