Equita blesses the marriage between Banco Bpm and Unicredit, underlining the creation of value linked to the business combination between the two entities, while on the stock exchange the two stocks are rising, with the market continuing to hope for a review of the terms of the takeover bid, including a relaunch. In the mid-afternoon Unicredit is up 2,6% to 54,91 euros, Banco Bpm is gaining 1,59% to 10,215 euros. In the meantime, Government takes its time on Golden Power
Equita: “From integration a true national champion would be born”
“We continue to believe that the integration between the two realities has a strong industrial logic, allowing to strengthen the positioning in Italy, through two highly complementary networks and the possibility of pooling the product factories, with significant scope for synergy generation”, explain the analysts at Equita, according to whom the combined entity would maintain a Cet1 above 13% and would have a Adjusted revenue above 20%. Not only that, Sim's estimates also speak of a price-earnings ratio expected in 2027 of around 7,1 times, with a yield of around 11%. Experts also believe that the operation would be especially convenient for Banco Bpm shareholders since they would find themselves becoming partners in “a true national champion, with greater scale, a broad set of product factories and the potential to pool investments in distribution channels and IT”.
Equita's analysis then underlines that the institute that would be born from the aggregation of Unicredit and Banco Bpm would have greater resilience by virtue of a pan-European exhibition in Piazza Gae Aulenti and would enjoy the ability to maintain rich capital generation (and distribution) in the years to come.
The market's assessment would likely be revised upwards, to reflect the higher earnings and earnings per share growth compared to Banco Bpm alone.
Equiita: “If the deal falls through, more risks for Banco Bpm shareholders”
The operation, for the moment, remains uncertain, awaiting the conclusion of the acceptance period for Banco Bpm's offer on Anima, scheduled for April 4, and above all the ECB's verdict on the Danish Compromise, expected "very soon". In the meantime, Thursday March 27, Unicredit assembly will meet to decide on the capital increase preparatory to the offer.
“If the deal does not continue, let's see greater risk of loss of value for Banco Bpm shareholders compared to Unicredit ones”, Equita explains. The bank led by Andrea Orcel actually trades on multiples well below other institutions, with a price/earnings ratio expected for 2026 of around 8,1 times, against the 9 times average for the sector. “The Banco Bpm ratings they are already pricing in our opinionor the best case scenario that is, the bank's merger with Unicredit and also the acquisition of Anima with the green light on the Danish Compromise", underline the experts who highlight how the stock is trading with a price/earnings ratio expected for 2026 of 9,1 times.
Equita and JP Morgan promote Unicredit
In this context, Equity issued a 'Buy' recommendation on Unicredit, raising the target price from 54 to 58,5 euros, while the recommendation on Banco Bpm is 'Hold' with a price target of 9 euros, level lower than stock market prices (above 10 euros).
The experts, moreover, have improved Unicredit's prospects also to reflect the more prosperous scenario emerging in Germany. "In particular, we have revised the 2025-27 profit by +4% on average, estimating a result in 2027 of at least 9,8 billion".
Moreover today too jp morgan recommends an 'Overweight' on Unicredit, with a price target much higher than the stock market prices and equal to 69 euros.
Government takes time on Golden Power
Meanwhile, according to a rumor published by The messenger, the golden power procedure on the ops of Unicredit on Banco Bpm, opened on February 4, would have been extended until the end of April. Palazzo Chigi has in fact requested further information on Unicredit's presence in Russia and on the ongoing dispute in Moscow for which the bank has set aside 500 million euros, but also on the strategy in Germany, where Unicredit is struggling with the takeover of Commerzbank. The government in fact fears a shift of Unicredit's center of gravity outside of Italy.
