“This marriage is not going to happen.” This time, the final word on what could be the wedding of the decade in the Italian banking landscape will not be a domineering lord active on the eastern branch of Lake Como, but a credit giant born and raised on the banks of the Seine.
After having reserved a potential 19,9% stake in Banco Bpm, Crédit Agricole has moved the axis of Italian banking risk to Paris. He knows it well unicredit, so much so that according to what he reports Republic, Andrea Orcel and Philippe Brassac, respectively CEO of Piazza Gae Aulenti and Banca Verte, have already begun negotiations.The first round of negotiations, however, did not take off – writes the Roman newspaper – apparently because of Orcel’s denials to any proposal from the French. So Brassac withdrew in good order and began sending messages to the Italian government”. But Orcel has no intention of giving up, so much so that there is already talk of possible new meetings at the negotiating table after the holidays.
The defense of the Bank
In the meantime, not even the CEO of Banco Bpm, Joseph Castagna, he is sitting on his hands and is actually trying to understand whether in Crédit Agricole he can find a valuable ally to defend himself from Unicredit.
The Bank is said to be working to define a strategy. Among the hypotheses on the table, Mf says, there would be a extraordinary dividend or relaunch on Anima Holding, after the 1,6 billion takeover bid launched last November 6th.
In the background there is then the Mps option on which Banco Bpm could launch an extraordinary operation aimed at creating the now infamous third pole. In this case, however, the times would be very long, at least three-four months, and the support of the first French partner would become even more fundamental.
Unicredit: is a relaunch possible?
The Unicredit but he might decide to move.The market is expecting a revival, in the order of 3-4 billion, with an offer that could value Banco Bpm up to 9 euros per share against the 6,6 proposed by Unicredit. It is no coincidence that in recent weeks the Milanese bank's stock has gained considerable ground on the stock exchange and is currently trading at 7,75 euros per share.
In a video call with investors organized by BofA, Orcel said that Unicredit has until March to evaluate the opportunity to improve the conditions of the ops. The price offered for Banco Bpm is “fair”, with a premium of 15-20% on the “undisturbed” stock market prices, before the takeover bid on Anima and the rumors about consolidation, but in any case the crucial element is the return on investment, which must be above 15%, reiterated the CEO of Unicredit, adding that in order to possibly evaluate a relaunch, it will be necessary to examine the end-of-year results of Banco Bpm, which will be published in February 2025, as well as the outcome of the takeover bid launched by the latter on Anima. In short, the game is still long.
