“If Milei wins and does what he promised in the election campaign, we do not risk a crisis like that of the Corralito in 2001, but there will be an escalation of tensions and violence in the country”. With these words, the Argentine political writer and ghostwriter, Nicolas Goszi, comments with FIRSTonline le Argentine presidential elections on Sunday 22 October, which sees the far-right outsider Javier Milei, the anti-establishment candidate who overturned the predictions in the August primaries, as the favourite, ahead of the outgoing Economy Minister Sergio Massa, candidate of the Peronist centre-left and "favourite" of the international elites, starting with the International Monetary Fund which is a creditor of over 50 billion dollars to Buenos Aires. “The totaldollarisation of the economy proposed by Milei – explains Goszi, who had worked on the campaign of Daniel Scioli in the 2015 presidential elections, later defeated by the liberal Mauricio Macri – cannot work in Argentina: it would only benefit the very rich, not even the middle class” .
Doctor Goszi, can Milei win in the first round?
“The feeling in the country is that anything can happen, but I don't think so. In the polls it is given at 35%, to win in the first round he would have to reach 40% and lead his opponents by at least 10 points. But he could win in the runoff, yes."
And would it really be a problem for Argentina?
“Yes, because while there is a strong need for social policies in the country, with poverty at 40%, its recipes are all in favor of big capital”.
Is he therefore the candidate of the establishment?
“Actually no, because his program is so confused and ultra-capitalist that paradoxically the elites, neither national nor foreign, like it. Milei defines himself as an anarcho-capitalist, and in fact he is not seen with confidence even on Wall Street. He is too undisciplined, he makes absurd proposals such as selling all gold reserves to resolve the crisis, and then he is accused of not guaranteeing governability. Milei doesn't have a structured party behind him, he's a loose cannon, while even leaders similar to him like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro had the support of at least part of the establishment."
Does Milei remind you more of Trump or Bolsonaro? And would it hold a candle to any European leader, present or past?
“Milei is a bit Trump and a bit Bolsonaro, although with some differences. In economics, for example, he is similar to Bolsonaro, even if the former Brazilian president is even more conservative on ethical issues. There are also points of contact with Trump, but the tycoon had the trust of at least part of the financial world. In Europe I don't know, there are neo-fascist tendencies in some movements there that I honestly don't see in Milei. He is more of a turbo-liberal, European leaders are more nationalist."
Yet, like Trump, Bolsonaro and other sovereignist leaders, the people like Milei.
“Yes, because the Argentines are disappointed and angry, and they are right. In reality, many of them do not follow politics enough to fully understand his proposal, but they will go to vote anyway, because in Argentina it is compulsory, getting caught up in anger and believing Milei when he says that the situation has been worsening for eight years. and that he can change things. But he wants to privatize everything, he wants to fire many state workers to leave the field open to wild liberalization and totaldollarization of the economy. And he also wants to strengthen the police force to repress the probable tensions due to his action. This is worrying, I'm not saying there is a risk of civil war but there would be a spiral of violence."
What does it mean todollarize the economy?
“It means saying goodbye to the peso, to the Central Bank and doing as only 2-3 countries in the world have done so far, because it is precisely a formula that hardly works. In Latin America we already see it in Ecuador and El Salvador, but Argentina cannot afford it. The exchange rate is at historic highs, who can afford to buy dollars today? Only the super rich. The problem is that many will vote for Milei thinking that they will receive their salaries in dollars rather than pesos, but it doesn't work that way. The poorest, but also the middle class, will lose a lot."
In your opinion, is the 40% poverty rate in Argentina overestimated or underestimated?
“I would say, as often happens, that it is underestimated.”
Are we therefore risking a crisis like the one in 2001, with the bank run?
“I would say no, because at the time we had less inflation, but we also had less work. Today there is work but inflation is higher. According to economists, there does not appear to be an imminent risk of hyperinflation, as happened at the end of the XNUMXs."
What do you think of the challenger, the Peronist Sergio Massa?
“First of all, unlike Milei, yes, he is a man of the establishment: the Argentine and international financial elites like him, as does the centre-right candidate Patricia Bullrich, who however has little chance of reaching the run-off. Massa as Minister of Economy did what he could, when he arrived the situation was already compromised, he was reasonable in dealing with the IMF. Let's say he would be the lesser evil, even if Argentina needs more social justice, while he belongs to the centrist wing of the left. In Argentina today the true left, so to speak, is worth no more than 5%. The only chance for Massa is that those who didn't go to vote in the primaries do so on October 22nd."
Argentina has been suffering from inflation for 100 years because the political caste does not want to stop populism. Don't talk nonsense if you don't know how to live in the country.
The person interviewed lives in Argentina