Two weeks before the primary and less than 3 months after elezioni prezidenziali,Argentina is still struggling with one of the worst financial crises of its history. After the record inflation in June (115% on an annual basis, even if on a monthly basis it was the lowest since the beginning of 2023), in the last few days it has been the turn of exchange with the US dollar, which at the beginning of the week reached a new all-time record of 552 pesos. The so-called blue dollar, i.e. the parallel one, has even been exchanged for 560 Argentine pesos in some provinces. The peak came after the government, on Sunday 23 July, launched a new package of measures, including that of raising the rate of the dollar for agricultural exports, with the exception of soybeans of which Argentina is a major producer, second only to Brazil in South America.
The debt to the IMF to be paid
The exchange rate for agricultural exports therefore goes from 300 to 340 pesos, which according to the calculations of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, candidate of the Peronist party in the next presidential elections, should yield 2 billion dollars to the disastrous state coffers. A sum that will be very useful for paying off, by the end of July, one of the tranches of the monstrous debt subscribed last year with the International Monetary Fund: by the 31st In fact, Buenos Aires must repay 2,6 billion dollars, and Massa – considered a tightrope walker of public finances but not taking the lead in the polls precisely because of his too centrist profile – also announced that the IMF will send more aid to the country in August and November.
Pais tax increase
Another government stunt was theincrease in quotations of the tarjeta dollar, or the one used by Argentines traveling abroad, and del dollar ahorro, ie the one used for savings (practically as a safe haven): now they are worth 497,65 pesos, compared to the previous exchange rate of 466 pesos. The latest finding was instead theP-tax increaseais (Imposto por uma Argentina inclusive and solidarity), a sort of additional VAT on the purchase of certain categories of products and services imported from abroad, introduced by law from 2021. The rate for services was raised to 25% except for services related to education and health, which are totally exempt, while on products it is now 7,5%, excluding medicines, fire-fighting materials, fuels, energy-related products and primary foodstuffs need.
Bad forecasts for the Argentine economy, GDP -2,5%
Will the Massa recipe be successful? For now, if nothing else, the economy minister of the unpopular Peronist government is laboriously gaining the trust of the IMF, ready to grant new loans. But they always come from Washington bad forecast for the Argentine economy in 2023: at the end of the year the GDP should fall by 2,5% and theinflation to rise again, 120% compared to 2022. And in the meantime, we have also started drought, which according to estimates by President Alberto Fernandez will cost the beauty of 20 billion dollars.
