Difficult choices both in the economic and political fields await Mauricio Macri, the new president of Argentina. As reported by analysts, during the first half of 2015, GDP growth accelerated to 2,2%, compared to 0,8% in the same period of the previous year and 0,2% in the second half of 2014. The most recent, better-than-expected data led to an upward revision of official GDP growth estimates, to 2,3 .2015% in 3 and 2016% in XNUMX. However, in the October World Economic Outlook the IMF instead forecasts an increase of 0,4% in 2015 and a contraction in 2016 (-0,7%).
Commercial exchange in 2014 was equal to 134 billion dollars (-1%). Exports (equal to 68,3 billion, -11%) were higher than imports (65,3 billion, -11%). The data for the first nine months of 2015 show a drop in both imports and exports about 10% and 16%, respectively. The trade balance, historically positive, amounted to 2014 billion in 3 and in the first three quarters of this year the decrease in trade generated a surplus of 1,6 billion (against 5,6 billion in the same period of 2014). Commercial transactions are mainly carried out with American markets, especially with Brazil (25%), USA (9%) and Chile (3%). Asia has a trade share of about 26% and among all the countries China stands out, with a percentage of 11%. Europe carves out a share of around 19% of trade, in particular Germany (4%), Spain (2%) and Italy. The commodity detail sees the prevalence among imports of machinery (28%), minerals (19%), means of transport (16%), chemical products (15%) and rubber and plastic (6%), while among exports are relevant agro-food products (55%), means of transport (13%), chemical products (8%), minerals (7%), metals (3%). The net balance is positive for agro-food products, stones, glass and ceramics, various goods, while it is negative for all other categories.
The stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Argentina in 2014 amounted to $114 billion (21% of GDP), where the main target sectors of FDI are those of the petroleum, chemical, transport and telecommunications, means of transport and finance sectors. The main investor countries are the USA, followed by Spain, the Netherlands and Brazil. Italy is in 13th place with a share of 2,4%. Italian trade in 2014 amounted to 1,9 billion euros (+0,2%). Exports (1 billion) marked a reduction of 5%, while imports (0,9 billion) increased by 7%. In the first eight months of 2015, imports dropped by 3% to 529 million euros, while exports dropped by 4% to 679 million. The Argentine share of Italian trade remains around 0,3%, while the retail category shows a surplus for Italy in all product categories, with the exception of agro-food products.
In October 2015 the official inflation rate was 14,3%, a substantial slowdown compared to 23,9% in December 2014. According to independent estimates reported by Intesa Sanpaolo Study Centre, inflation would now travel around 27%. The growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 accelerated to 35,1% in September 2015, from 27,7% in December 2014. Monetary policy appears unbalanced in support of domestic demand and the monetary financing of the public deficit and little attention to inflation control. In 2014, the public deficit amounted to 3,3% of GDP compared to 1,9% in 2013, with the primary deficit rising to 1,4%, from 0,8% in 2013. The overall deficit would to 5,4% of GDP and the primary one to 3,7%, excluding payments from the Central Bank to the Treasury from the calculation. The persistent impossibility of obtaining financing on the capital market then led to an increasing monetary financing of the Treasury and the recourse to unconventional measures to cover the borrowing requirement. In the January-November 2015 period, the peso depreciated by a further 14% against the dollar (to 9,7 ARS : 1 USD). On the unofficial market, 15 pesos are asked for 1 dollar. The gradual removal of currency restrictions and the affirmation of a single exchange rate managed by the Central Bank, which have been promised by the new administration, passes through a large depreciation of the official exchange rate.
In the first six months of 2015, the current deficit amounted to 5,8 billion dollars, an increase compared to 3,4 billion in the same period of 2014, an enlargement that was determined by the contraction of the trade surplus. At the end of October, foreign exchange reserves amounted to 21 billion. Net of the existing swaps with China, reserves are reduced to just over 10 billion. This figure compares with an estimated 2016 external financial requirement of 46,6 and an external debt of 149,5 billion. However, the external position is less critical than the low level of reserves would indicate. At the end of 2014, the Net Financial Position was positive for 74,8 billion (14% of GDP). In particular, the non-financial private sector held assets abroad of 224,8 billion. This capital could at least partially be recovered if the internal financial framework were to become more stable.
